Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 18, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 127 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Russia MV, RSX
93 Energy Global, IXC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 18, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Russia MV, RSX
93 Energy Global, IXC
92 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
91 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
91 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
90 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
89 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
88 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
87 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
87 Canada Index, EWC
86 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
85 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
84 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
84 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
83 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
82 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
82 MidCap Russell, IWR
81 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
80 Industrial SPDR, XLI
79 Sweden Index, EWD
79 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
78 Microcap Russell, IWC
77 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
77 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 Austria Index, EWO
75 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
74 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
74 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
73 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
72 South Korea Index, EWY
72 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
71 Networking, IGN
70 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
70 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
69 REIT Wilshire, RWR
68 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
67 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
66 Water Resources, PHO
65 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
65 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
64 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
63 Value VIPERs, VTV
62 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
62 Malaysia Index, EWM
61 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
60 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
60 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
59 Materials SPDR, XLB
58 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
57 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
57 Growth VIPERs, VUG
56 Netherlands Index, EWN
55 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
55 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
54 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
53 Indonesia MV, IDX
52 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
52 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
51 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
50 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
50 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
49 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
48 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
48 Germany Index, EWG
47 Financials VIPERs, VFH
46 Switzerland Index, EWL
45 Financial SPDR, XLF
45 Mexico Index, EWW
44 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
43 Financial DJ US, IYF
43 Dividend International, PID
42 Biotech SPDR, XBI
41 Technology DJ US, IYW
40 Dividend SPDR, SDY
40 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
39 United Kingdom Index, EWU
38 France Index, EWQ
38 Belgium Index, EWK
37 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
36 Financial Services DJ, IYG
35 Technology SPDR, XLK
35 EMU Europe Index, EZU
34 Global 100, IOO
33 Taiwan Index, EWT
33 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
32 Italy Index, EWI
31 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
30 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
30 Emerging Markets, EEM
29 Financial Preferred, PGF
28 Health Care SPDR, XLV
28 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
27 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
26 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Australia Index, EWA
25 Bond, TIPS, TIP
24 European VIPERs, VGK
23 Latin Am 40, ILF
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
22 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
21 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
21 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
20 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
19 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
18 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
18 Spain Index, EWP
17 South Africa Index, EZA
16 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
16 Brazil Index, EWZ
15 Hong Kong Index, EWH
14 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
13 Bond, Corp, LQD
13 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
12 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
11 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
11 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
10 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
9 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
9 Singapore Index, EWS
8 Japan Index, EWJ
7 Utilities SPDR, XLU
6 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
6 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
5 China 25 iS, FXI
4 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
4 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
3 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1 India PS, PIN
1 India Earnings WTree, EPI
