Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 4, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 136 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Networking, IGN
94 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
93 Energy Global, IXC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, March 4, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Networking, IGN
94 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
93 Energy Global, IXC
92 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
92 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
91 Russia MV, RSX
90 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Commodity Tracking, DBC
89 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
88 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
87 Canada Index, EWC
86 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
85 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
84 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
83 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
82 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
82 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
81 Microcap Russell, IWC
80 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
80 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
78 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
77 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
77 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
76 Industrial SPDR, XLI
75 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
75 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
74 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
73 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
73 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
72 Germany Index, EWG
71 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
70 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
70 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
68 Sweden Index, EWD
68 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
67 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
66 Growth VIPERs, VUG
65 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
65 Materials SPDR, XLB
64 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
63 South Korea Index, EWY
63 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
62 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
61 REIT Wilshire, RWR
61 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
60 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
59 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
58 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
58 Value VIPERs, VTV
57 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
56 Water Resources, PHO
55 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
54 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
54 Netherlands Index, EWN
53 Technology SPDR, XLK
52 Japan Index, EWJ
51 Taiwan Index, EWT
51 Mexico Index, EWW
50 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
49 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
49 Switzerland Index, EWL
48 United Kingdom Index, EWU
47 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
45 Austria Index, EWO
44 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
44 Malaysia Index, EWM
43 EAFE Index, EFA
42 Dividend International, PID
42 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
41 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
40 Global 100, IOO
39 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
39 France Index, EWQ
38 Australia Index, EWA
37 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
37 South Africa Index, EZA
36 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
35 EMU Europe Index, EZU
35 Financials VIPERs, VFH
34 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
33 Dividend SPDR, SDY
32 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
32 Financial DJ US, IYF
31 Belgium Index, EWK
30 Health Care SPDR, XLV
30 Financial SPDR, XLF
29 Latin Am 40, ILF
28 Indonesia MV, IDX
27 Biotech SPDR, XBI
27 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
26 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
25 Emerging Markets, EEM
25 European VIPERs, VGK
24 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
23 Italy Index, EWI
23 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
22 Financial Services DJ, IYG
21 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
20 Hong Kong Index, EWH
20 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
19 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
18 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
18 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
17 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
16 Financial Preferred, PGF
15 Singapore Index, EWS
15 Utilities SPDR, XLU
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
13 Brazil Index, EWZ
13 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
12 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 China 25 iS, FXI
10 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
8 Spain Index, EWP
8 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
7 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
5 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
4 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
3 India PS, PIN
2 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
