5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 104 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 REIT Wilshire, RWR
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Microcap Russell, IWC
94 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
93 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 14, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 REIT Wilshire, RWR
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Microcap Russell, IWC
94 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
93 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
92 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
91 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
91 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
90 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
89 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
88 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
87 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
86 Malaysia Index, EWM
86 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
85 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
84 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
83 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
82 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
81 Industrial SPDR, XLI
81 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
80 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
79 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
79 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
78 MidCap Russell, IWR
77 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
76 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
75 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
74 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
74 India Earnings WTree, EPI
73 Networking, IGN
72 Mexico Index, EWW
71 South Korea Index, EWY
71 Technology DJ US, IYW
70 Canada Index, EWC
69 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
68 Dividend SPDR, SDY
67 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
66 Singapore Index, EWS
66 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
65 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
64 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
64 South Africa Index, EZA
63 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
62 Financials VIPERs, VFH
61 Technology SPDR, XLK
61 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
60 Growth VIPERs, VUG
59 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
59 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
58 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
57 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
56 Water Resources, PHO
56 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
55 India PS, PIN
54 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
54 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
53 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
52 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
51 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
51 Value VIPERs, VTV
50 Financial DJ US, IYF
49 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
49 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
48 Russia MV, RSX
47 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
46 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
46 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
45 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
44 Financial SPDR, XLF
44 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
43 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
42 Bond, TIPS, TIP
41 Latin Am 40, ILF
41 Emerging Markets, EEM
40 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
39 Biotech SPDR, XBI
39 Financial Services DJ, IYG
38 Bond, Corp, LQD
37 Financial Preferred, PGF
36 Taiwan Index, EWT
36 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
35 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
34 Sweden Index, EWD
34 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
33 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
32 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
31 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
31 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
30 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
29 Materials SPDR, XLB
29 Utilities SPDR, XLU
28 Energy SPDR, XLE
27 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
26 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
25 Health Care SPDR, XLV
24 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
24 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
23 Japan Index, EWJ
22 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
21 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
21 Dividend International, PID
20 Energy DJ, IYE
19 Brazil Index, EWZ
19 Hong Kong Index, EWH
18 Australia Index, EWA
17 Switzerland Index, EWL
16 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
16 China 25 iS, FXI
15 Global 100, IOO
14 Energy Global, IXC
14 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
13 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
12 Netherlands Index, EWN
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
11 EAFE Index, EFA
10 Germany Index, EWG
9 United Kingdom Index, EWU
9 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
8 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
7 Belgium Index, EWK
6 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
5 European VIPERs, VGK
4 Austria Index, EWO
4 France Index, EWQ
3 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2 EMU Europe Index, EZU
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
