Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 21, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 95 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 REIT Wilshire, RWR
98 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
97 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
95 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
94 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 21, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 REIT Wilshire, RWR
98 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
97 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
95 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
94 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
92 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
91 Silver Trust iS, SLV
91 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
90 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
89 Malaysia Index, EWM
89 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
88 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
86 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
85 Microcap Russell, IWC
84 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
84 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
83 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
82 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
81 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
80 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
79 Industrial SPDR, XLI
79 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
78 MidCap Russell, IWR
77 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
76 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
75 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
74 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
74 India Earnings WTree, EPI
73 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
72 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
71 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
71 Networking, IGN
70 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Dividend SPDR, SDY
69 Bond, TIPS, TIP
68 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
67 Bond, Corp, LQD
66 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
66 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
65 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
64 Singapore Index, EWS
64 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
63 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
62 Mexico Index, EWW
61 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
61 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
60 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
59 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
59 Technology SPDR, XLK
58 Canada Index, EWC
57 Financials VIPERs, VFH
56 India PS, PIN
56 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
55 Growth VIPERs, VUG
54 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
54 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
53 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
52 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
51 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
51 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
50 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
49 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
49 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
48 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
47 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
46 Value VIPERs, VTV
46 Financial DJ US, IYF
45 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
44 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
43 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
42 Financial SPDR, XLF
41 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
41 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
40 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
39 Financial Services DJ, IYG
39 Financial Preferred, PGF
38 South Africa Index, EZA
37 Water Resources, PHO
36 Japan Index, EWJ
36 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
35 South Korea Index, EWY
34 Sweden Index, EWD
34 Biotech SPDR, XBI
33 Emerging Markets, EEM
32 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
31 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
31 Materials SPDR, XLB
30 Russia MV, RSX
29 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
29 Hong Kong Index, EWH
28 Latin Am 40, ILF
27 Health Care SPDR, XLV
26 Utilities SPDR, XLU
26 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
25 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
24 Taiwan Index, EWT
24 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
23 China 25 iS, FXI
22 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 Dividend International, PID
21 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
20 Energy SPDR, XLE
19 Energy VIPERs, VDE
19 Energy DJ, IYE
18 Global 100, IOO
17 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
16 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
16 Netherlands Index, EWN
15 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
14 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
14 Switzerland Index, EWL
13 Brazil Index, EWZ
12 EAFE Index, EFA
11 Belgium Index, EWK
11 Germany Index, EWG
10 Energy Global, IXC
9 Commodity Tracking, DBC
9 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
8 United Kingdom Index, EWU
7 Australia Index, EWA
6 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 European VIPERs, VGK
5 Austria Index, EWO
4 EMU Europe Index, EZU
4 France Index, EWQ
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
