Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 7, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 99 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 REIT Wilshire, RWR
97 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Indonesia MV, IDX
94 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
93 Malaysia Index, EWM
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, May 7, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 REIT Wilshire, RWR
97 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Indonesia MV, IDX
94 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
93 Malaysia Index, EWM
92 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
91 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
91 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
90 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
89 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
88 Microcap Russell, IWC
87 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
86 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
86 Industrial SPDR, XLI
85 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
84 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
84 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
83 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
82 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
81 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
81 India Earnings WTree, EPI
80 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
78 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
77 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
76 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
75 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
74 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
74 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
73 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
72 Mexico Index, EWW
71 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 South Korea Index, EWY
70 Singapore Index, EWS
69 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
69 Canada Index, EWC
68 Technology DJ US, IYW
67 Dividend SPDR, SDY
66 Networking, IGN
66 Financials VIPERs, VFH
65 India PS, PIN
64 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
64 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
63 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
62 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
61 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
61 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
60 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
59 Growth VIPERs, VUG
59 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
58 Bond, TIPS, TIP
57 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
56 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
56 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
55 Financial DJ US, IYF
54 Technology SPDR, XLK
54 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
53 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
52 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
51 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
51 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
50 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
49 Value VIPERs, VTV
49 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
48 Financial SPDR, XLF
47 Bond, Corp, LQD
46 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
46 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
45 Financial Services DJ, IYG
44 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
44 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
43 South Africa Index, EZA
42 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
41 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
41 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
40 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
39 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
39 Financial Preferred, PGF
38 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
37 Taiwan Index, EWT
36 Latin Am 40, ILF
36 Water Resources, PHO
35 Japan Index, EWJ
34 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
34 Emerging Markets, EEM
33 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
32 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
31 Health Care SPDR, XLV
31 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
30 Materials SPDR, XLB
29 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
29 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
28 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
27 Energy SPDR, XLE
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
25 Hong Kong Index, EWH
24 Utilities SPDR, XLU
24 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
23 Biotech SPDR, XBI
22 Energy DJ, IYE
21 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
21 Russia MV, RSX
20 Sweden Index, EWD
19 Australia Index, EWA
19 Dividend International, PID
18 Brazil Index, EWZ
17 Commodity Tracking, DBC
16 China 25 iS, FXI
16 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
15 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
14 Energy Global, IXC
14 Switzerland Index, EWL
13 Global 100, IOO
12 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
11 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
11 EAFE Index, EFA
10 United Kingdom Index, EWU
9 Netherlands Index, EWN
9 Germany Index, EWG
8 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
7 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 European VIPERs, VGK
5 Belgium Index, EWK
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4 France Index, EWQ
3 Austria Index, EWO
2 EMU Europe Index, EZU
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
