Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 19, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 124 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 South Africa Index, EZA
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Mexico Index, EWW
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
93 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 19, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 South Africa Index, EZA
95 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
94 Mexico Index, EWW
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
93 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
92 Malaysia Index, EWM
91 South Korea Index, EWY
91 Singapore Index, EWS
90 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
88 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
87 Energy VIPERs, VDE
86 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
86 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
85 Sweden Index, EWD
84 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
84 Networking, IGN
83 Latin Am 40, ILF
82 Germany Index, EWG
81 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
81 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
80 Energy SPDR, XLE
79 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
79 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
78 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
77 Emerging Markets, EEM
76 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
76 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
75 Taiwan Index, EWT
74 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
74 Energy DJ, IYE
73 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
72 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
71 Russia MV, RSX
71 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
70 MidCap Russell, IWR
69 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
69 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
68 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
67 Microcap Russell, IWC
66 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
66 Growth VIPERs, VUG
65 Austria Index, EWO
64 Technology DJ US, IYW
64 India Earnings WTree, EPI
63 Australia Index, EWA
62 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
61 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
61 Canada Index, EWC
60 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
59 Brazil Index, EWZ
59 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
58 Industrial SPDR, XLI
57 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
56 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
55 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
54 Materials SPDR, XLB
54 Technology SPDR, XLK
53 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
52 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
51 United Kingdom Index, EWU
51 Energy Global, IXC
50 Switzerland Index, EWL
49 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
49 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
48 Dividend International, PID
47 European VIPERs, VGK
46 Belgium Index, EWK
46 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
45 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
44 REIT Wilshire, RWR
44 Water Resources, PHO
43 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
42 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
41 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
41 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
40 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
39 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
39 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
38 EAFE Index, EFA
37 Netherlands Index, EWN
36 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
36 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
35 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
34 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
34 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
33 Global 100, IOO
32 China 25 iS, FXI
31 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
31 France Index, EWQ
30 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
29 Dividend SPDR, SDY
29 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
28 EMU Europe Index, EZU
27 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
26 India PS, PIN
26 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
25 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
24 Japan Index, EWJ
24 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
23 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
22 Biotech SPDR, XBI
21 Financial Preferred, PGF
21 Value VIPERs, VTV
20 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
19 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
19 Commodity Tracking, DBC
18 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
17 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
16 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
16 Health Care SPDR, XLV
15 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
14 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
14 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
13 Bond, TIPS, TIP
12 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
11 Financials VIPERs, VFH
11 Utilities SPDR, XLU
10 Bond, Corp, LQD
9 Financial DJ US, IYF
9 Financial SPDR, XLF
8 Italy Index, EWI
7 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
6 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
5 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
3 Spain Index, EWP
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
