Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 26, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 118 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 26, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
92 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
91 Mexico Index, EWW
91 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
90 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
89 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
89 Networking, IGN
88 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
87 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
86 South Africa Index, EZA
86 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
85 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
84 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
84 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
83 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 Hong Kong Index, EWH
81 Malaysia Index, EWM
81 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
80 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
79 Microcap Russell, IWC
79 Energy VIPERs, VDE
78 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
77 MidCap Russell, IWR
76 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
76 Taiwan Index, EWT
75 Technology DJ US, IYW
74 Energy SPDR, XLE
74 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
73 Sweden Index, EWD
72 Singapore Index, EWS
71 Growth VIPERs, VUG
71 Latin Am 40, ILF
70 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
69 Energy DJ, IYE
69 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
68 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
67 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
66 Russia MV, RSX
66 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
65 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
64 Industrial SPDR, XLI
64 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
63 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
62 REIT Wilshire, RWR
61 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
61 Canada Index, EWC
60 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
59 Germany Index, EWG
59 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
58 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
57 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
56 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
56 Technology SPDR, XLK
55 Water Resources, PHO
54 South Korea Index, EWY
54 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
53 Emerging Markets, EEM
52 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
51 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
51 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
50 Materials SPDR, XLB
49 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
49 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
48 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
47 Biotech SPDR, XBI
46 Commodity Tracking, DBC
46 Brazil Index, EWZ
45 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
44 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
44 Energy Global, IXC
43 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
42 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
41 Dividend SPDR, SDY
41 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
40 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
39 Switzerland Index, EWL
39 Dividend International, PID
38 Australia Index, EWA
37 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
36 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
36 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
35 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
34 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
34 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
33 India Earnings WTree, EPI
32 Financial Preferred, PGF
31 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
31 United Kingdom Index, EWU
30 Austria Index, EWO
29 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
29 Value VIPERs, VTV
28 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
27 Japan Index, EWJ
26 Global 100, IOO
26 China 25 iS, FXI
25 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
24 EAFE Index, EFA
24 European VIPERs, VGK
23 Bond, TIPS, TIP
22 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
21 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
21 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
20 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
19 Belgium Index, EWK
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
18 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
17 India PS, PIN
16 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
16 Bond, Corp, LQD
15 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
14 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
13 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
12 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
11 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
10 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
9 Financials VIPERs, VFH
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
8 France Index, EWQ
7 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Financial DJ US, IYF
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
4 Financial SPDR, XLF
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 Financial Services DJ, IYG
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
