Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 5, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 128 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Hong Kong Index, EWH
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 5, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Hong Kong Index, EWH
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
92 Malaysia Index, EWM
91 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
91 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
90 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
89 Australia Index, EWA
89 India PS, PIN
88 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
87 Mexico Index, EWW
86 Latin Am 40, ILF
86 Emerging Markets, EEM
85 South Korea Index, EWY
84 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
84 REIT Wilshire, RWR
83 Sweden Index, EWD
82 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
81 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
81 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
80 Russia MV, RSX
79 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
79 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
78 Brazil Index, EWZ
77 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
76 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
76 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
75 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
74 Networking, IGN
74 Taiwan Index, EWT
73 Germany Index, EWG
72 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
71 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
71 China 25 iS, FXI
70 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
69 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
69 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
68 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Technology DJ US, IYW
66 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
65 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
64 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
64 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
63 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
62 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
61 MidCap Russell, IWR
61 United Kingdom Index, EWU
60 Technology SPDR, XLK
59 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
59 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
58 Microcap Russell, IWC
57 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
56 Austria Index, EWO
56 Growth VIPERs, VUG
55 Switzerland Index, EWL
54 Materials SPDR, XLB
54 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
53 Industrial SPDR, XLI
52 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
51 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
51 European VIPERs, VGK
50 Canada Index, EWC
49 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
49 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
48 Belgium Index, EWK
47 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
46 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
46 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
45 Energy VIPERs, VDE
44 Commodity Tracking, DBC
44 Energy SPDR, XLE
43 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
42 Dividend International, PID
41 France Index, EWQ
41 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
40 EAFE Index, EFA
39 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
39 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
38 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
37 Energy Global, IXC
36 Energy DJ, IYE
36 Netherlands Index, EWN
35 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
33 Water Resources, PHO
32 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
31 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
31 Global 100, IOO
30 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
29 EMU Europe Index, EZU
29 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
28 Dividend SPDR, SDY
27 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
26 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
26 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
25 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
24 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
24 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
23 Value VIPERs, VTV
22 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
21 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
21 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
20 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
19 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
19 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
18 Financial Preferred, PGF
17 Financials VIPERs, VFH
16 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
16 Financial DJ US, IYF
15 Biotech SPDR, XBI
14 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 Financial SPDR, XLF
13 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
12 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
11 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Health Care SPDR, XLV
10 Italy Index, EWI
9 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
9 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
8 Japan Index, EWJ
7 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Financial Services DJ, IYG
5 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Spain Index, EWP
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
1 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
