Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 1, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 119 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 India PS, PIN
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Sweden Index, EWD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 1, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 India PS, PIN
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Sweden Index, EWD
92 Hong Kong Index, EWH
91 Singapore Index, EWS
91 South Korea Index, EWY
90 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
89 Brazil Index, EWZ
89 Emerging Markets, EEM
88 Latin Am 40, ILF
87 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
86 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
86 Taiwan Index, EWT
85 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
84 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
84 Australia Index, EWA
83 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
82 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
81 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
81 REIT Wilshire, RWR
80 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
79 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
79 Networking, IGN
78 Mexico Index, EWW
77 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
76 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
76 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
75 Russia MV, RSX
74 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
74 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
73 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
72 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
71 Financial Preferred, PGF
71 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
70 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
69 Belgium Index, EWK
69 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
68 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
67 Austria Index, EWO
66 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
66 MidCap Russell, IWR
65 Canada Index, EWC
64 United Kingdom Index, EWU
64 Industrial SPDR, XLI
63 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
62 Dividend International, PID
61 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
61 European VIPERs, VGK
60 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
59 Biotech SPDR, XBI
59 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
58 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
57 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
56 Netherlands Index, EWN
56 Dividend SPDR, SDY
55 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
54 Switzerland Index, EWL
54 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
53 Germany Index, EWG
52 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
51 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
51 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
50 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
49 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
49 Technology SPDR, XLK
48 Technology DJ US, IYW
47 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
46 China 25 iS, FXI
46 Growth VIPERs, VUG
45 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
44 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
44 EAFE Index, EFA
43 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
42 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
41 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
41 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
40 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
39 Microcap Russell, IWC
39 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
38 Materials SPDR, XLB
37 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
36 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
36 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
35 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
34 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
34 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
33 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
32 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
31 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
31 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
30 France Index, EWQ
29 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
29 Utilities SPDR, XLU
28 Bond, Corp, LQD
27 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
26 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
26 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
25 Energy VIPERs, VDE
24 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
24 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
23 Global 100, IOO
22 EMU Europe Index, EZU
21 Commodity Tracking, DBC
21 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
20 Energy Global, IXC
19 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
19 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
18 Energy SPDR, XLE
17 Bond, TIPS, TIP
16 Value VIPERs, VTV
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
15 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
14 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
14 Health Care SPDR, XLV
13 Energy DJ, IYE
12 Water Resources, PHO
11 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
11 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
10 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
9 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
8 Japan Index, EWJ
7 Spain Index, EWP
6 Italy Index, EWI
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
5 Financials VIPERs, VFH
4 Financial DJ US, IYF
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
3 Financial SPDR, XLF
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
1 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
