Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 15, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 122 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Sweden Index, EWD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 15, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Sweden Index, EWD
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
91 India PS, PIN
90 Brazil Index, EWZ
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
89 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 Emerging Markets, EEM
86 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
86 Latin Am 40, ILF
85 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
84 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
84 Australia Index, EWA
83 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
82 REIT Wilshire, RWR
81 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
81 Austria Index, EWO
80 Mexico Index, EWW
79 Belgium Index, EWK
79 China 25 iS, FXI
78 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
77 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
76 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
76 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
75 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
74 Germany Index, EWG
74 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
73 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
72 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
71 Russia MV, RSX
71 Switzerland Index, EWL
70 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
69 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
69 Technology DJ US, IYW
68 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
67 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
66 European VIPERs, VGK
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
65 Taiwan Index, EWT
64 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
64 Dividend International, PID
63 Technology SPDR, XLK
62 Netherlands Index, EWN
61 United Kingdom Index, EWU
61 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
60 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
59 Canada Index, EWC
59 Biotech SPDR, XBI
58 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
57 Industrial SPDR, XLI
56 MidCap Russell, IWR
56 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
55 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
54 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
54 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
53 Microcap Russell, IWC
52 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
51 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
51 Networking, IGN
50 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
49 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
49 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
48 Growth VIPERs, VUG
47 France Index, EWQ
46 Dividend SPDR, SDY
46 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
45 EAFE Index, EFA
44 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 EMU Europe Index, EZU
43 Materials SPDR, XLB
42 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
41 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
41 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
40 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
39 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
39 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
38 Energy VIPERs, VDE
37 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
36 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
36 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
35 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
34 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
34 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
33 Energy SPDR, XLE
32 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
31 Global 100, IOO
31 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
30 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
29 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
29 Financial Preferred, PGF
28 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
27 Water Resources, PHO
26 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
26 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
25 Commodity Tracking, DBC
24 Energy DJ, IYE
24 Spain Index, EWP
23 Energy Global, IXC
22 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
21 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
21 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
20 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
19 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
19 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
18 Utilities SPDR, XLU
17 Bond, TIPS, TIP
16 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
16 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
15 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
14 Health Care SPDR, XLV
14 Value VIPERs, VTV
13 Italy Index, EWI
12 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
10 Bond, Corp, LQD
9 Japan Index, EWJ
9 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
8 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
7 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
6 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
5 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 Financials VIPERs, VFH
4 Financial DJ US, IYF
3 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2 Financial SPDR, XLF
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
