Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 22, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Sweden Index, EWD
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 South Africa Index, EZA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 22, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Sweden Index, EWD
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 South Africa Index, EZA
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 India PS, PIN
91 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
90 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
89 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
89 REIT Wilshire, RWR
88 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
87 Mexico Index, EWW
86 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
86 South Korea Index, EWY
85 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
84 Emerging Markets, EEM
84 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
83 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
82 Germany Index, EWG
81 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Austria Index, EWO
80 Belgium Index, EWK
79 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
79 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
78 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
77 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
76 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
76 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
75 Russia MV, RSX
74 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
74 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
73 China 25 iS, FXI
72 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
71 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
71 Australia Index, EWA
70 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
68 Industrial SPDR, XLI
67 European VIPERs, VGK
66 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
66 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
65 MidCap Russell, IWR
64 Technology SPDR, XLK
64 Brazil Index, EWZ
63 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
62 Dividend International, PID
61 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
61 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
60 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
59 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
59 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
58 France Index, EWQ
57 Growth VIPERs, VUG
56 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
56 Taiwan Index, EWT
55 Microcap Russell, IWC
54 Switzerland Index, EWL
54 EMU Europe Index, EZU
53 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
52 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
51 Netherlands Index, EWN
51 Networking, IGN
50 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
49 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
49 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
48 United Kingdom Index, EWU
47 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
46 Dividend SPDR, SDY
46 EAFE Index, EFA
45 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
44 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
44 Canada Index, EWC
43 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
42 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
41 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
41 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
40 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
39 Materials SPDR, XLB
39 Water Resources, PHO
38 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
37 Energy VIPERs, VDE
36 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
36 Financial Preferred, PGF
35 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
34 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
33 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
32 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
31 Energy SPDR, XLE
31 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
30 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
29 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
29 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
28 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
27 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
26 Global 100, IOO
26 Biotech SPDR, XBI
25 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
24 Spain Index, EWP
24 Commodity Tracking, DBC
23 Energy DJ, IYE
22 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
21 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
21 Italy Index, EWI
20 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
19 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
19 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
18 Bond, TIPS, TIP
17 Utilities SPDR, XLU
16 Value VIPERs, VTV
16 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
15 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
14 Energy Global, IXC
14 Health Care SPDR, XLV
13 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
12 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 Bond, Corp, LQD
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
10 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
9 Japan Index, EWJ
9 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
8 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
7 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
6 Financials VIPERs, VFH
6 Financial DJ US, IYF
5 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
3 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
2 Financial SPDR, XLF
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
