5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Sweden Index, EWD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 29, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 Hong Kong Index, EWH
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Sweden Index, EWD
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 Mexico Index, EWW
91 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
90 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
89 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
88 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
87 Latin Am 40, ILF
86 India PS, PIN
86 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
85 Emerging Markets, EEM
84 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
84 Networking, IGN
83 Germany Index, EWG
82 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
81 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
81 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
80 South Korea Index, EWY
79 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
79 REIT Wilshire, RWR
78 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
77 Taiwan Index, EWT
76 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
76 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
75 Technology DJ US, IYW
74 Belgium Index, EWK
74 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
73 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
72 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
71 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
71 Austria Index, EWO
70 Australia Index, EWA
69 Russia MV, RSX
69 Brazil Index, EWZ
68 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
67 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
66 Technology SPDR, XLK
66 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
65 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
64 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
64 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
63 MidCap Russell, IWR
62 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
61 Growth VIPERs, VUG
61 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
60 European VIPERs, VGK
59 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
59 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
58 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
57 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
56 Dividend International, PID
56 United Kingdom Index, EWU
55 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
54 Industrial SPDR, XLI
54 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
53 Microcap Russell, IWC
52 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
51 China 25 iS, FXI
51 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
50 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
49 Canada Index, EWC
49 Materials SPDR, XLB
48 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
47 Switzerland Index, EWL
46 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
46 France Index, EWQ
45 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
44 EMU Europe Index, EZU
44 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
43 Netherlands Index, EWN
42 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
41 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
41 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
40 EAFE Index, EFA
39 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
39 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
38 Dividend SPDR, SDY
37 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
36 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
36 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
35 Commodity Tracking, DBC
34 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
34 Energy VIPERs, VDE
33 Financial Preferred, PGF
32 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
31 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
31 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
30 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
29 Energy SPDR, XLE
29 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
28 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
27 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 Global 100, IOO
26 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
25 Water Resources, PHO
24 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
24 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
23 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
22 Energy DJ, IYE
21 Energy Global, IXC
21 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
20 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
19 Italy Index, EWI
19 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
18 Spain Index, EWP
17 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 Bond, TIPS, TIP
15 Value VIPERs, VTV
14 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
14 Health Care SPDR, XLV
13 Utilities SPDR, XLU
12 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
11 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
11 Bond, Corp, LQD
10 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
9 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
9 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
8 Japan Index, EWJ
7 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
6 Financials VIPERs, VFH
6 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
5 Financial DJ US, IYF
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
2 Financial SPDR, XLF
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
