Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 8, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 India PS, PIN
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Hong Kong Index, EWH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, October 8, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 India PS, PIN
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Hong Kong Index, EWH
92 Sweden Index, EWD
91 South Korea Index, EWY
91 Singapore Index, EWS
90 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
89 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
89 Brazil Index, EWZ
88 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
87 Emerging Markets, EEM
86 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
86 Latin Am 40, ILF
85 Australia Index, EWA
84 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
84 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
83 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
82 Mexico Index, EWW
81 REIT Wilshire, RWR
81 Taiwan Index, EWT
80 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
79 Austria Index, EWO
79 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
78 Russia MV, RSX
77 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
76 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
76 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
75 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
74 Belgium Index, EWK
74 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
73 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
72 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
70 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
69 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
69 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
68 Canada Index, EWC
67 Dividend International, PID
66 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
66 Switzerland Index, EWL
65 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
64 United Kingdom Index, EWU
64 Biotech SPDR, XBI
63 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
62 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
61 European VIPERs, VGK
61 MidCap Russell, IWR
60 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
59 Financial Preferred, PGF
59 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
58 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
57 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
56 China 25 iS, FXI
56 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
55 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
54 Netherlands Index, EWN
54 Germany Index, EWG
53 Networking, IGN
52 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
51 Dividend SPDR, SDY
51 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
50 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
49 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
49 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
48 EAFE Index, EFA
47 Materials SPDR, XLB
46 Microcap Russell, IWC
46 Commodity Tracking, DBC
45 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
44 France Index, EWQ
44 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
43 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
42 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
41 Growth VIPERs, VUG
41 Technology DJ US, IYW
40 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
39 Technology SPDR, XLK
39 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
38 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
37 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
36 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
36 EMU Europe Index, EZU
35 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
34 Energy VIPERs, VDE
34 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
33 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
32 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
31 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
31 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
30 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
29 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
29 Global 100, IOO
28 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
27 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
26 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
26 Energy SPDR, XLE
25 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
24 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
24 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
23 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
22 Energy Global, IXC
21 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
21 Water Resources, PHO
20 Utilities SPDR, XLU
19 Bond, TIPS, TIP
19 Bond, Corp, LQD
18 Energy DJ, IYE
17 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
16 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
16 Value VIPERs, VTV
15 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
14 Spain Index, EWP
14 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
13 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
12 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
11 Japan Index, EWJ
11 Health Care SPDR, XLV
10 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
9 Italy Index, EWI
9 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
8 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
7 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
6 Financials VIPERs, VFH
5 Financial DJ US, IYF
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Financial SPDR, XLF
3 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1 Financial Services DJ, IYG
