Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 10, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 108 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 REIT Wilshire, RWR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 10, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 REIT Wilshire, RWR
92 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
91 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
91 South Africa Index, EZA
90 Financial Preferred, PGF
89 India PS, PIN
89 Sweden Index, EWD
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 Hong Kong Index, EWH
86 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
86 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
85 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
84 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
84 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
83 Emerging Markets, EEM
82 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
80 Australia Index, EWA
79 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
79 Russia MV, RSX
78 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
77 Switzerland Index, EWL
76 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
76 Industrial SPDR, XLI
75 Brazil Index, EWZ
74 Taiwan Index, EWT
74 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
73 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
72 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
71 MidCap Russell, IWR
71 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
70 Canada Index, EWC
69 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
69 Utilities SPDR, XLU
68 Dividend International, PID
67 Materials SPDR, XLB
66 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
66 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
65 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
64 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
64 Dividend SPDR, SDY
63 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
62 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
61 Mexico Index, EWW
61 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
60 Bond, Corp, LQD
59 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
59 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
58 United Kingdom Index, EWU
57 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
56 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
56 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
55 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
54 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
54 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
53 Biotech SPDR, XBI
52 Networking, IGN
51 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
51 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
50 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
49 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
49 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
48 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
47 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
46 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Growth VIPERs, VUG
45 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
44 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
43 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
42 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
41 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
41 Bond, TIPS, TIP
40 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
39 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
39 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
38 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
37 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
36 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
36 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
35 European VIPERs, VGK
34 Value VIPERs, VTV
34 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
33 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
32 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
31 EAFE Index, EFA
31 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
30 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
29 Technology SPDR, XLK
29 China 25 iS, FXI
28 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
26 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
25 Health Care SPDR, XLV
24 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
24 Technology DJ US, IYW
23 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
22 Global 100, IOO
21 Commodity Tracking, DBC
21 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
20 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
19 Belgium Index, EWK
19 Japan Index, EWJ
18 Financials VIPERs, VFH
17 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
16 Energy VIPERs, VDE
16 Energy SPDR, XLE
15 Financial DJ US, IYF
14 Germany Index, EWG
14 Financial SPDR, XLF
13 Netherlands Index, EWN
12 Energy DJ, IYE
11 Microcap Russell, IWC
11 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
10 Energy Global, IXC
9 France Index, EWQ
9 Austria Index, EWO
8 Water Resources, PHO
7 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
6 Spain Index, EWP
5 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
