Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 17, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 111 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 India PS, PIN
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 17, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 India PS, PIN
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 Sweden Index, EWD
91 REIT Wilshire, RWR
90 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
89 South Africa Index, EZA
89 Hong Kong Index, EWH
88 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
87 Financial Preferred, PGF
86 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
86 South Korea Index, EWY
85 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
84 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
84 Emerging Markets, EEM
83 Taiwan Index, EWT
82 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
81 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
81 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
80 Latin Am 40, ILF
79 Australia Index, EWA
79 Networking, IGN
78 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
77 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
76 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
75 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
74 Brazil Index, EWZ
73 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
72 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
70 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
69 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
69 Mexico Index, EWW
68 Canada Index, EWC
67 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
66 Switzerland Index, EWL
66 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
65 United Kingdom Index, EWU
64 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
64 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
63 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
62 Biotech SPDR, XBI
61 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
61 Dividend SPDR, SDY
60 Dividend International, PID
59 Technology DJ US, IYW
59 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
58 Technology SPDR, XLK
57 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
56 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
56 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
55 Growth VIPERs, VUG
54 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
54 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
53 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
52 Bond, Corp, LQD
51 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
51 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
50 Materials SPDR, XLB
49 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
49 Russia MV, RSX
48 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
47 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
46 China 25 iS, FXI
46 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
45 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
44 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
43 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
42 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
41 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
41 European VIPERs, VGK
40 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
39 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
39 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
38 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
37 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
36 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
36 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
35 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
34 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
34 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
33 Belgium Index, EWK
32 EAFE Index, EFA
31 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
30 Utilities SPDR, XLU
29 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
26 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
25 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
24 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
24 Bond, TIPS, TIP
23 Global 100, IOO
22 Germany Index, EWG
21 Netherlands Index, EWN
21 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
19 Austria Index, EWO
18 Commodity Tracking, DBC
17 Financials VIPERs, VFH
16 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
16 Microcap Russell, IWC
15 Financial DJ US, IYF
14 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
14 France Index, EWQ
13 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
12 Financial SPDR, XLF
11 Japan Index, EWJ
11 Energy VIPERs, VDE
10 EMU Europe Index, EZU
9 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
9 Water Resources, PHO
8 Energy DJ, IYE
7 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
6 Energy SPDR, XLE
6 Energy Global, IXC
5 Spain Index, EWP
4 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3 Financial Services DJ, IYG
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
