Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 24, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 113 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 Sweden Index, EWD
94 India PS, PIN
93 South Africa Index, EZA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 24, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 Sweden Index, EWD
94 India PS, PIN
93 South Africa Index, EZA
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 Hong Kong Index, EWH
91 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
90 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
89 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
89 South Korea Index, EWY
88 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
87 REIT Wilshire, RWR
86 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
86 Australia Index, EWA
85 Emerging Markets, EEM
84 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
84 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
83 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
82 Taiwan Index, EWT
81 Networking, IGN
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
80 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
79 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
79 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
78 Financial Preferred, PGF
77 Brazil Index, EWZ
76 Latin Am 40, ILF
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
75 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
74 Mexico Index, EWW
74 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
73 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
72 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 United Kingdom Index, EWU
71 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
70 Switzerland Index, EWL
69 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
69 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
68 MidCap Russell, IWR
67 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
65 Belgium Index, EWK
64 European VIPERs, VGK
64 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
63 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
62 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
61 Technology DJ US, IYW
61 Biotech SPDR, XBI
60 Technology SPDR, XLK
59 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
59 Dividend International, PID
58 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
57 Dividend SPDR, SDY
56 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
56 Netherlands Index, EWN
55 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
54 Growth VIPERs, VUG
54 Canada Index, EWC
53 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
52 Germany Index, EWG
51 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
51 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
50 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
49 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
49 Russia MV, RSX
48 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
47 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
46 EAFE Index, EFA
46 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
45 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
44 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
44 Materials SPDR, XLB
43 China 25 iS, FXI
42 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
41 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
41 Austria Index, EWO
40 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
39 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
39 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
38 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
37 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
36 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
36 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
35 France Index, EWQ
34 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
33 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
32 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
31 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
31 Bond, Corp, LQD
30 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
29 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
29 Utilities SPDR, XLU
28 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
27 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
26 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
26 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
25 Global 100, IOO
24 EMU Europe Index, EZU
24 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
23 Microcap Russell, IWC
22 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
21 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
21 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
19 Value VIPERs, VTV
18 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
17 Bond, TIPS, TIP
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
16 Commodity Tracking, DBC
15 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
14 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
14 Spain Index, EWP
13 Water Resources, PHO
12 Energy VIPERs, VDE
11 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
11 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
10 Energy SPDR, XLE
9 Japan Index, EWJ
9 Financials VIPERs, VFH
8 Energy DJ, IYE
7 Financial DJ US, IYF
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Energy Global, IXC
5 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 Financial SPDR, XLF
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Financial Services DJ, IYG
1 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
