Reports & Statistics
Latest FOMC Press Release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090812a.htm
Retail sales in the United States posted a surprise 0.1 percent decline in July. A Bloomberg news survey had shown a median estimate for a 0.8 percent increase.1 Details of the report showed that sales excluding automobiles fell 0.6 percent versus expectations for a 0.1 percent gain.2 The July Consumer Price Index was unchanged month over month but was 2.1 percent lower year-on-year. Core CPI rose 0.1 percent. Industrial production in July was 0.5 percent higher than June.3
This week’s EIA data showed oil inventories gaining 2.5 million barrels compared to expectations for a 700,000 barrel increase. Gasoline supplies fell 1 million barrels compared to forecasts for a 1.3 million barrel drop. Distillates gained 800,000 barrels.4
Top Commodity News
Precious Metals
Silver production for Pan American Silver is reported to have reached “a record of 5.8 million ounces during the second quarter of the year” – a 24 percent increase.5 Dealers in India said that the 15,000 rupee mark achieved by gold has cause demand to ease.6 The festive season in India may bring more jewelry interest.7
Grains & Oilseeds
Latest USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
Latest Crop Production – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-08-12-2009.pdf
Corn, soybean, and wheat production forecasts for the United States have been adjusted in the latest crop production report from the USDA. “Corn Production Up 5 Percent from 2008, Soybean Production Up 8 Percent from Last Year… All Wheat Production Up 3 Percent from July Forecast”
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
The Solomon Islands are reporting a production jump in cocoa for the month of June.8 Indonesian production is expected to decline by four percent this year. The cocoa association’s chairman cited the age of trees and crop diseases as reasons for a possible decline. Trees are being replanted as part of an ongoing government project.9 Weather conditions are the focus for farmers in Ivory Coast who are looking ahead to the main crop. Light rains were seen as favorable, but sunshine will likely be a vital part of pod development. Current cloud cover has brought concern.10 Uganda’s robusta coffee forecast has been reduced by over six percent as drought may cut yields.11 The chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cacao Association has suggested that “coffee exporters should store their coffee and delay signing export contracts”. The Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development noted that the USD value of exports was lower year-on-year.12 The latest International Coffee Organization forecast for 2009/2010 global coffee output remains unchanged at 127 million bags.13 Brazilian coffee farmers will continue to experience beneficial dry weather, according to the latest Somar forecasts.14
Livestock
Governors from several states have sent a letter to President Obama to request aid or support for pork producers. The requests include funding for pork purchases and work to “urge China” to remove the pork ban put in place following the flu scare.15 South Korea has removed its ban on North American live hog imports.16 Argentina’s government may be moving to “ease restrictions on the country’s beef exports”.17 According to the latest WASDE report, total red meat production for the US will be down this year. Higher pork production will likely be offset due to lower beef and poultry.18
Coming Up Next Week:
Monday: Crop Progress
Tuesday: PPI, Housing Starts/Permits
Wednesday: Energy Stocks
Thursday: Gas Storage, NASS US & Canadian Cattle/Hogs
Friday: Existing Home Sales, Livestock Slaughter
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2009 LaSalle Futures Group
1 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amvAwCQ9WEdA
2 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090813-708802.html
3 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125025245413531943.html
4 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090812-711477.html
5 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=87407&sn=Detail
6 http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM52850320090814?sp=true
7 http://in.reuters.com/article/corporateNews/idINIndia-41706720090812?sp=true
8 http://solomonstarnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10834&change=71&changeown=84&Itemid=26
9 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090812-702426.html
10 http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE5790CX20090810
11 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aENWqzCfe.wE
12 http://english.cri.cn/6826/2009/08/13/1601s508644.htm
13 http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE57C0JU20090813
14 http://www.flex-news-food.com/pages/25425/Brazil/Coffee/dry-weather-brazil-coffee-areas-helps-harvest.html
15 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13313
16 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13343
17 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13343
18 http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
