Reports & Statistics
Consumer credit fell at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in October, and at least two major credit card companies are reporting their highest delinquency rates for the year.1 The US Trade deficit may be edging higher as imports look to pick up and oil prices were higher.2 The Commerce Department reported a 1.3 percent rise in retail sales for November. This compares to Briefing.com surveys which pointed to expectations for a rise of 0.6 percent.3 The Consumer Sentiment Index also gained, climbing to 73.4 versus expectations for a reading around 69.0.4
Energy Administration Data pointed to a drop in crude oil stockpiles last week as inventories fell an unexpected 3.8 million barrels. This was contrary to an average forecast for a 600,000 barrel build. Gasoline inventories gained 2.2 million barrels versus forecasts for a 1.5 million barrel build. Distillates posted a gain of 1.6 million barrels compared to projections for a 600,000 barrel draw. In additional EIA data, overall oil demand was 3 percent lower than a year ago. 5
Precious Metals
Jim Rogers was quoted as suggesting that he was holding gold now – despite higher prices – and dismissed the idea that there may be a bubble in the market. During a speech delivered in Prague, he also noted that silver was “preferable”.6 One of the top ETFs backed by gold reported that its holdings “fell to 1,116.247 tonnes”, a drop of 1.2 percent in one day. Uncertainty and investor liquidation were cited as the root causes.7 China’s gold demand has climbed 8 percent, and it may be set to overtake India as the top consumer of the precious metal.8
Grains & Oilseeds
Latest World Ag Supply & Demand – http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
Latest Crop Production – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-12-10-2009.pdf
Snow may have brought the remaining corn harvest in the US to a halt. An area holding roughly one-and-a-half billion bushels may have been left to harvest.9 The USDA already suggested corn exports for the US may be 50 million bushels lower based on slower shipments and competition from other countries.10 Wheat exports likely lag as prices remain “too high” compared to other exporters.11 India may be looking at a surplus of nearly 8 million tons of wheat at the beginning of their season in April.12
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
Cocoa farmers in Nigeria who produce quality beans will receive premiums for their cocoa.13 New crop Arabica coffee arrivals at Indian Coffee Association auctions will likely increase in the coming weeks.14 The International Coffee Organization is suggesting that bad weather will likely lead to a widening of the global coffee deficit. Vietnam and Columbia may experience significant dips in production.15 Vietnam’s exports were up over 15 percent in the first eleven months of this year. Exports totaled more than 1 million tons.16 Rains in Brazil may affect sugar output and cane crushing. 17
Livestock
Russia banned imports from five pork plants in the United States due to “excessive findings of oxytetracycline and salmonella”.18 This week, the USDA released lower projections for beef and pork production in 2010, but raised export forecasts for both. Cattle slaughter is forecast to be unchanged but with lower carcass weights. Hog slaughter forecasts were also reduced. Weak demand was cited as justification for lowering cattle price forecasts.19
Coming Up Next Week:
Tuesday:
PPI, Industrial Production, Utilization
Wednesday:
Housing Starts, Permits, CPI, Energy Stocks, FOMC Statement
Thursday:
Gas Storage
1 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af7H1B.73URs&pos=2
2 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12102009_day_ahead_jobless_claims.asp
3 http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/11/news/economy/retail_sales/
4 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-soars-in-early-dec-2009-12-11
5 http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0914855820091209
6 http://www.cnbc.com/id/34376063
7 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=94241&sn=Detail
8 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=94239&sn=Detail
9 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/12/10/2009-12-10T201406Z_01_GEE5B91LL_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GRAINS-UPDATE-4.html
10 http://www.ethanolproducer.com/article.jsp?article_id=6214
11 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/12/10/2009-12-10T202157Z_01_N10131138_RTRIDST_0_USA-EXPORTS-GRAIN.html
12 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/India-sees-77-mn-T-wheat-surplus-in-April-fin-min/articleshow/5326546.cms
13 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=afsd6ift0YxQ
14 http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM37482820091211
15 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ayXJ1DgMA78A
16 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/09/content_12616825.htm
17 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/12/10/2009-12-10T210704Z_01_GEE5B9221_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SOFTS-UPDATE-3.html
18 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=14832
19 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=14843
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