Reports & Statistics
In the UK, GDP dropped 0.8 percent in the second quarter – twice as fast as expected and the largest drop on record.1 In the US, existing home sales posted a third month of gains. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales rose 3.6 percent from May. Sales were 0.2 percent lower than June of 2008.2
Crude oil supplies dropped 1.8 million barrels last week, according to EIA data. The Platts survey showed expectations for a 2 million barrel decline. Gasoline supplies gained 800,000 barrels – matching survey forecasts – and distillates grew by 1.2 million barrels versus the forecast for a gain of 1.4 million barrels. Oil imports were reported to have fallen by 346,000 barrels per day last week.3 Natural gas in storage rose 66 billion cubic feet. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a 68 billion cubic foot build.4
Top Commodity News
Precious Metals
An accident at an Impala Platinum mine that claimed the lives of nine workers has forced the partial or complete shutdown of four shafts so far. An investigation into the accident will be launched.5 In other South African mining news, a pay raise has been offered to gold miners to try to eliminate the possibility of a strike.6 In the US, the request by GM to “drop its existing palladium and rhodium supply agreement with the only U.S.-based PGM miner, Stillwater Mining” has been upheld by a US bankruptcy court.7 On the demand side of precious metals, gold retailers are reporting that Saudi Arabian gold jewelry sales volume has fallen in the first half of 2009, possibly by as much as 30 percent.8
Grains & Oilseeds
Below average monsoon rains in India’s largest soybean growing areas may lead to lower production.9 China may begin a government auction of nearly half a million tons of soybeans. According to the China National Grain and Oils Information Center report, this auction is aimed at ensuring adequate local supplies and stabilizing prices. According to Bloomberg, this amount will be 11 percent of China’s total soybean imports in June.10 The US Departments of Energy and Agriculture have granted over $6 million in awards for development of bio-fuel technologies.11 The USDA has announced that more surveys will be conducted to revise planted acreage estimates. The revisions will be included in the August crop production report.12
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
Exports of cocoa beans from Cameroon are up 9.6 percent from the same time last year. 173,992 tons of beans have been exported in the first eleven months of the 2008/2009 season. Forecasts for the same region have been reduced for the 2009/2010 season due to black pod disease.13 The US and Canada increased organic coffee imports by 12 percent in 2008, year-over-year. A total of 89 million pounds were imported.14 Possible ideal weather conditions in South India may boost coffee crop estimates. Young, fragile bean sprouts need spells of sunshine as continuous rain showers can result in the beans falling off.15 Coffee exports from Vietnam rose over 7 percent year-over-year according to the government.16 Brazil’s main coffee growing state – Minas Gerais – may see heavy rains, but no frost threat is imminent.17 Rains in Brazil may disrupt the harvest and drying of sugar cane crops.18
Livestock
A potential government subsidy program for Canadian pork producers has drawn concern from the National Pork Producers Council. They cite concern that live hog prices in the US would be lower as a result.19 Finishers and packers in the US imported “36 percent fewer live swine from Canada” year-over-year in May.20 The US Meat Export Federation may be shifting their focus to include a strategy to move “as much meat” as they can in the current economic environment.21
Coming Up Next Week:
Monday: Crop Progress, New Home Sales
Wednesday: Energy Stocks, Durable Goods
Thursday: Gas Storage
Friday: GDP
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2009 LaSalle Futures Group
1 http://www.cnbc.com/id/32120666
2 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/07/23/afx6691791.html
3 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-prices-slip-after-recent-gains
4 http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=332914
5 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=86577&sn=Detail
6 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=86575&sn=Detail
7 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=86618&sn=Detail
8 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=86599&sn=Detail
9 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aO_fCgKopYxo
10 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=atCYfWXcE4eU
11 http://www.genomeweb.com/doe-usda-grant-63m-biofuel-studies
12 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090723-718170.html
13 http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE56N0FR20090724
14 http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE56K5MD20090721
15 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/07/24/stories/2009072451081800.htm
16 http://www.flex-news-food.com/pages/25027/Coffee/Vietnam/vietnams-july-coffee-exports-rise-77-pct.html
17 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090720-708577.html
18 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=azN4rC1OI_bQ
19 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13121
20 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13085
21 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13118
