Reports & Statistics
According to the Conference Board’s index, consumer confidence fell in June. The reading of 46.6 percent was lower than the 49 expected by economists who participated in a Reuters’ survey.1 Home price indexes suggest that single-family home prices are higher. According to one index of metro areas, May prices were around 0.5 percent higher than April’s. New home sales were up 11 percent last month, according to the Commerce Department.2 Overall durable goods orders were 2.5 percent lower last month. Excluding transportation, orders were up over one percent in June.3 The latest GDP data showed a rate of contraction at one percent. Briefing.com economists were anticipating a rate of 1.5 percent.4
In energies, crude oil supplies gained 5.1 million barrels versus expectations for a build of 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline supplies dropped 2.3 million barrels versus estimates for a 1.1 million barrel decline. Distillates grew by 2.1 million barrels compared to expectations for a gain of 1 million barrels.5 Natural gas supplies grew by 71 billion cubic feet, just under forecasts for a build of 72 billion cubic feet.6
Top Commodity News
Precious Metals
A new central bank agreement being negotiated may result in the sale of over 400 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.7 According to the World Gold Council, China may become the top consumer of gold in the world this year. Demand for jewelry in the first quarter may have increased in China while falling in India.8 AngloGold has reduced its gold hedge book by over one million ounces.9 Norlisk – the Russian nickel and PGM producer – has reported that output for all metals had declined in the first half of 2009.10
Grains & Oilseeds
Japan will be importing corn from Ukraine as part of a plan to diversify sources following the drop in US quality and increase in Black Sea supplies. Up to a fifth of the nation’s requirements will come from the supplier.11 The USDA confirmed that China purchased around 1.9 million metric tons of soybeans.12
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
Drought in sugar cane growing regions of India has caused concern among mills that availability will be threatened.13 In Brazil, wet weather may have affected quality and production of sugar cane in the center-south region; however, specialists are still assessing the crop. Production in the northeast region has seen stable weather.14 Sugar production in Australia may match last year’s production, overcoming concerns that early-2009 flooding had deeply affected yields.15 According to the Somar weather service, Brazil’s main growing region – Minas Gerais – will have good growing conditions, and frost chances should remain low. Parana state in the south will experience light rains.16
Livestock
According to recent USDA surveys, cattle inventory reported is the smallest since they first started tracking. Feedlot placements are 8 percent lower than last year. In a separate report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, beef production and slaughter were each one percent higher in June versus the same time last year.17 Pork production was 5 percent higher, and “hog kill” was 3 percent higher.18
Coming Up Next Week:
Monday: Crop Progress, Construction Spending, ISM Index
Tuesday: Pending Home Sales, Personal Income
Wednesday: Energy Stocks, ISM Services, Ann. Ag Prices
Thursday: Gas Storage
Friday: Employment Report
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2009 LaSalle Futures Group
1 http://www.thestar.com/business/article/672923
2 http://www.cnbc.com/id/32184433
3 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124887015293690029.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
4 http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/31/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2009073108
5 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-extends-losses-falling-below-66-2009-07-29?pagenumber=2
6 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-inventories-rise-71-bcf-last-week-eia-2009-07-30
7 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/07/29/2009-07-29T161057Z_01_N29268252_RTRIDST_0_IMF-GOLD-URGENT.html
8 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aRmMBlJ_RZGg
9 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=86944&sn=Detail
10 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page35?oid=86925&sn=Detail
11 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFtICUweYZeY
12 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVC6gb.I2tRI
13 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/Sugar-majors-likely-to-face-acute-cane-shortage-this-year/articleshow/4835982.cms
14 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090730-721046.html
15 http://www.flex-news-food.com/pages/25148/Australia/Sugar/australian-sugar-cane-yields-feared.html
16 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090730-718645.html
17 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13183
18 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13184
