Reports & Statistics
Housing starts rose 0.5 percent in September – lower than economists’ predictions for Briefing.com. Expectations had been for around a 2 percent gain.1 Single family home construction rose 3.9 percent.2 The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September fell 0.6 percent following a 1.7 percent increase in August. Dow Jones Newswires economist surveys had pointed to expectations for a 0.2 percent drop.3
In energies, crude oil inventories gained 1.3 million barrels last week versus Platts survey expectations for a 2.2 million barrel build. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) report also showed a drop of 2.3 million barrels of gasoline and an 800,000 barrel decrease in distillates.4 Analysts had forecast a 1 million barrel drop in gasoline and a 1.3 million barrel drop in distillates.5
Precious Metals
Gold buyers in India may have purchased around two billion dollars worth of gold in the most recent week of festivals, according to World Gold Council statements. At 56 tons more than a year earlier, this would represent a 5.7 percent gain “despite record prices”.6 Russia could sell up to 50 tons of gold from its precious metals repository. Government confirmation has not yet been made.7
Grains & Oilseeds
Stormy weather in the Midwestern United States will be of continued focus for corn and other grains. Two or more inches may have fallen in some areas, potentially bringing harvest delays.8 The potential for frost damage becomes a concern on delays.9 In some planting areas, delays in harvest may also put planting of winter wheat behind schedule.10 11
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
Carry-over stock of cocoa in Ivory Coast will be roughly 125,000 metric tons, according to data from the Bourse. This is 22 percent less than 2007/2008 carry-over.12 A three day strike by a cocoa coop in Ivory Coast was brought to conclusion following promises from the National Council of Elders and others.13 Ghana cocoa production is now forecast to be close to a record of 800,000 metric tons. 2008/2009 production estimates were closer to 710,000 tons.14 Shipments of cocoa from Nigeria grew by 48 percent in August to over 7,000 tons.15 New crop coffee harvest is underway in Vietnam with traders looking at weather for the potential for storms to hit the southeastern nation. Rains during harvest time can be problematic for quality; however, no storm threats are imminent. A Reuters poll places an estimate of 19 million bags on this year’s harvest, lower than the 19.5 million bags for 2008/2009.16 Guatemala’s coffee association is expecting an improvement over last year’s weather damaged harvests, aiming to harvest 2.7 percent more in the harvest period which begins in mid-November. 17
Livestock
The USDA confirmed that pigs from Minnesota have the H1N1 flu virus. There are no confirmed reports of “humans contracting H1N1 from swine or any other animal”, according to the report.18 Last week’s Cattle on Feed report from the USDA showed a year over year increase of 5 percent for placements in September. Estimates from the USDA were “in line with analysts’ expectations.”19
Coming Up Next Week:
Monday: Crop Progress
Tuesday: Durable Orders, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Energy Stocks, New Home Sales
Thursday: Gas Storage, GDP
Friday: Personal Income
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2009 LaSalle Futures Group
1 http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/10/housing_starts_increased_05_pe.html
2 http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/20/real_estate/housing_starts/?postversion=2009102008
3 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091020-709265.html
4 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-erases-losses-after-eia-petroleum-data-2009-10-21
5 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/10/21/2009-10-21T144502Z_01_N21491647_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-STOCKS-EIA.html
6 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g5ZBspCnmhDag8DjT2tHAbvHBhqA
7 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=91231&sn=Detail
8 http://www.agweb.com/Blogs/BlogPost.aspx?src=AdvantageGrain&PID=f05a24c9-57f4-4724-b674-4b89ffeb6e93
9 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajgINVtUaiuA
10 http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/wire/news/00535_vtp_tr_pty_175851.php
11 http://www.commodityonline.com/crops-weather/US-wheat-sowing-deferred-on-delay-in-soybean-yield-2009-10-19-22119-3-1.html
12 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a8RQogdGD7l8
13 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yR7ONpWlIE
14 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=awNFfatm1BWU
15 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aIKlba73Ibyc
16 http://www.flex-news-food.com/pages/26492/Coffee/Vietnam/vietnam-coffee-sales-slow-harvest-peak-month.html
17 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091016-713920.html
18 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=14116
19 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=14089
