War does not determine who is right, only who is left. – Bertrand Russell
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, Japan and China are at it again. We discussed the “fishing’ incident last week and Japan has released the Chinese captain who rammed one of their Coast Guard vessels. Now shippers in several Chinese cities said customs officers have stepped up spot inspections of goods being loaded onto ships bound for Japan and being imported from the country. Traders said officers in some cases were taking the highly unusual step of looking at every item in a container instead of following normal practice of examining a small sample. The heavy searches, which can add costly delays to shipments. For it’s part, Tokyo wants China to pay restitution and now China’s navy is moving into disputed waters.
China is fighting a trade war on two fronts as they are threatening to retaliate against US businesses operating in China if Congress passes legislation intended to force a revaluation of the Yuan. The House of Representatives is set to consider legislation this week that would let companies petition for higher duties on imports from China to compensate for the effects of a weak yuan. Forcing China to raise the value of its currency may create 500,000 jobs in the U.S., most in manufacturing at above-average wages, according to C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. China’s currency, which is undervalued by as much as 25 percent, is the most important trade issue facing the U.S., he said in testimony last week.
So we are pressuring China to strengthen their currency, which would make our currency relatively weaker. One would think the dollar couldn’t get much weaker than it is now (see Dave Fry’s chart). We’ve been shorting GLD (buying GLL) and TLT, expecting a dollar bounce off these levels but if we fail here – we’re going to have one very ugly chart.
Of course a 10% drop on the dollar could be just the ticket for the markets – since our stocks are priced in dollars. That makes them look pretty good compared to cash that’s sitting on the sidelines (or tied up in notes) that’s lost over 10% of it’s buying power since June.
That’s right, JUNE! As people who travel to Europe are well aware, prices of things outside the US have gone…
