Thursday, February 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Although I did not hear them, there were apparently rumors floating around the markets on Wednesday that the U.S. government has been stepping in to buy the U.S. stock indexes in late-day trading recently. I had a long-time reader of mine call me and ask me about the validity of such a thing. My response was that I’m virtually positive those rumors are unfounded. It’s in the best interest of the U.S. government to ensure that all futures markets operate efficiently and without manipulation. There could be no worse effort to ruin the price discovery of the futures markets, and the markets themselves, than to have the U.S. government actively trading futures markets with taxpayer money. Now, with the foreign exchange market, it’s a different story, as history has shown. The Federal Reserve, in coordination with other central banks, has bought and sold the U.S. dollar and other major currencies in the FOREX market on several occasions the past 25 years, in order to influence the value of the U.S. dollar.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Traders are likely to do some position-squaring today, ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,087.50 and then at 1,082.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,098.20 and then at 1,103.30. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,097.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,792.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,770.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,763.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,768.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,150 and then more stops just below support at 10,100. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,225 and then at Wednesday’s high of 10,258. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,126
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on short covering. Bulls are fading again and need to show more power soon.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 8/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 25/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 7/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
118 24/32–second pivot point resistance
118 20/32–100-day moving average
118 11/32–previous day’s high
118 10/32–9-day moving average
118 7/32–4-day moving average
118 3/32–first pivot point resistance
117 22/32–pivot point
117 18/32–18-day moving average
117 14/32–previous day’s close
117 9/32–previous day’s low
117 1/32–first pivot point support
116 20/32–second pivot point support
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.26.5 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week’s low of 117.16.0 and then at 117.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 6/32–second pivot point resistance
118 –previous day’s high
117 29/32–4-day moving average
117 29/32–first pivot point resistance
117 27/32–9-day moving average
117 22/32–pivot point
117 19/32–previous day’s close
117 16/32–previous day’s low
117 13/32–first pivot point support
117 11/32–18-day moving average
117 7/32–100-day moving average
117 6/32–second pivot point support
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh five-month high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.89 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.51 and then at 79.25. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.25. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh seven-month low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3825 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3901 and then at 1.3950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3962. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Trading has turned choppy this week. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,112.00 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,100.00 and then at $1,095.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on profit taking. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $77.17 and then just above resistance at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.10 and then at $75.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $75.90. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering following losses on Wednesday. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker.
