* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Most Asian markets were closed Monday for the Lunar New Year celebration. China is on holiday all week for the Lunar New Year. That may limit buying interest in the gold and silver markets this week, due to demand from China slowing during its holiday season. Later this week the Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow. A main topic will be currency values as many industrialized nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their economic growth. There is growing concern that “currency wars” could break out if there is not some form of agreement reached soon by the major nations. At present, Japan is seen as the major instigator as the yen continues to plummet in value. Reports during the weekend said the U.S. and European Union finance officials are
considering issuing a joint statement on the matter, designed to ease growing worries and to send a warning to other countries. If the major countries cannot come to meaningful agreement on the matter and continue to work to devalue their currencies, that could become a major bullish force for the gold market, which is viewed by many traders and investors worldwide as a safe-haven “hard currency.” In other news, the OECD said in a report Monday that the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing amid Euro zone economic improvement. The group also said there will be economic growth divergence in the near future, with the U.S., U.K., Japan and Brazil showing economic growth, while China, Canada, France and India are set for economic weakness in the coming months. There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today and poked to another fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a fresh four-month high early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,790.00 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,765.00 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 13,910 and then at 13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 13,970 and then at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as risk appetite in the market place has been on the upswing for several weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 144 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 143 even and then at 142 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.25.0 and then at last week’s high of 131.29.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 131.13.0 and then at 131.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today and did hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls are gaining some upside momentum but the greenback bears still hold the overall near-term technical adavantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.42 and then at 80.79. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.17 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they have faded the past week or so and need to step up and show fresh power soon. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $96.00 and then at Friday’s high of $96.57. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at $94.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. Bulls have faded recently as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon may be at hand for the grain markets. There may be some near-term selling pressure in the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish the grains. Thus, present price weakness in the grains could be seen as value-buying opportunities looking at what prices could be fetching in the coming months.