Traders Await U.S. Economic Data Out Friday A.M.

Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, inflation in the European Union was reported at 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012, on an annualized basis. Wage growth in the EU grew only 1.4% during the period, versus 2.0% growth in the third quarter. There is a significant batch of U.S. economic data Friday that could move the markets, including real earnings, the consumer price index, the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, and industrial production and capacity utilization.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early yesterday and poked to another fresh five-year high overnight. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Yesterday, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,558.60 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders yesterday is located at this week’s low of 1,540.60 and then at 1,530.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,808.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,817.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,782.50 and then at 2,775.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early yesterday. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 14,430 and then at 14,400. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s record high of 14,465 and then at 14,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early yesterday, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early yesterday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 17/32 and then at this week’s high of 141 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 141 5/32 and then at 140 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early yesterday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.18.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.21.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.12.5 and then at 130.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower early yesterday on profit taking. The greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading late this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early yesterday. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.860 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.465 and then at 82.300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early yesterday. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $93.47 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.50 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. The weaker U.S. dollar index late this week has been a supportive factor for the grain markets. The grain markets have not been in near-term technical “synch” recently. That suggests to me that more choppy and non-trending price action is probable in the near term.