Friday, October 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is at or near limit down U.S. stock index futures prices and a sharply stronger U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The commodity markets are poised to take another big downside hit today, amid the financial market crisis and stock market meltdown overnight. However, there are a few commodity market prices that have dropped too far, in my opinion. Remember that commodity market traders generally overdo prices on the upside and overdo them on the downside. At some point soon there are likely to be some good bargains for commodity market bulls.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower to limit down in early morning trading as the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the contract low of 838.50 and then at 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 875.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 1.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 897.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 898.40
1st Support:——– 873.30
2nd Support:——– 831.40
1st Resistance:—– 940.30
2nd Resistance:—– 965.40
December Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a fresh contract low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,125.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,190.00 and then at 1,225.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,250.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,231.20
1st Support:—— 1,197.35
2nd Support:—— 1,141.20
1st Resistance:— 1,287.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,321.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 1.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,447
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,590
1st Support:—— 8,400
2nd Support:—— 8,027
1st Resistance:— 8,963
2nd Resistance:— 9,153
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are solidly higher early today, amid the stock market meltdown. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 29/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 16/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 117 7/32
1st Support:—– 116 7/32
2nd Support:—– 114 25/32
1st Resistance:– 118 21/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 21/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 116.00.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 115 12/32
1st Support:—– 114 25/32
2nd Support:—– 114 3/32
1st Resistance:– 116 2/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 21/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher in early trading today and hit a fresh contract and two-year high overnight. Bulls are still very strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight and the contract high of 87.58 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 9.0
The December Euro is sharply lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2479 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2700 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2878. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 2.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly lower in early dealings today and hit another fresh 14-month low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $715.00 and then at the overnight high of $729.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $681.00 and then at $675.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $733.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today and hit a fresh 15-month low overnight. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at 66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $61.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading, amid very bearish “outside markets–a sharply stronger U.S. dollar and solidly lower crude oil prices. Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage amid worldwide economic recession fears. However, I do believe corn is at or close the point where prices will be viewed as a bargain buy. That’s not yet the case with beans and wheat, in my opinion.
