*** NOTE: I waited until after the all-important jobs report this morning to write my blog. The jobs report will play a major role in today’s trading.

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight trading was sharply lower grain prices, as some weather models are easing up on the hotter temps in their extended forecasts for the Corn Belt. The financial and currency markets were on hold ahead of this morning’s extra-important U.S. jobs report. That report showed much less non-farm jobs growth than expected and should be bullish for stocks, metals and Treasuries, and bearish for the U.S. dollar. Crude oil is higher in early electronic dealings, and set a fresh all-time high in overnight trading, basis nearby futures.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap today was, of course, the U.S. jobs report. Also, the ECRI inflation gauge is due out, and the DOE weekly natural gas stocks report. President Bush holds a press conference this morning, which will also be closely watched by traders.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The indexes are modestly lower in choppy early morning electronic trading. Traders were digesting the U.S. jobs data before the open of trade, but the data is overall friendly. My bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.

September S&P 500: Prices have pushed to a fresh four-week high in early electronic trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is well above the 9-day and 18-day, and is turning still higher. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 1,280.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,289.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the June high of 1,302.70.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,282.80
1st Support:—— 1,278.20
2nd Support:—— 1,273.60
1st Resistance:— 1,287.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,292.00

September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bullish, but just barely. The 4-day is barely above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages, but strength today will turn the shorter-term moving averages more bullish. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at this week’s low of 1,560.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,550.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,580.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,600.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,568.50
1st Support:—— 1,557.00
2nd Support:—— 1,549.00
1st Resistance:— 1,576.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,588.00

September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,225 and then just below support at this week’s low of 11,180. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the early morning electronic high of 11,340 and then more buy stops just above resistance 11,400. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish again today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,279
1st Support:—— 11,235
2nd Support:—— 11,182
1st Resistance:— 11,332
2nd Resistance:— 11,376

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Both notes and bond prices are higher in early trading in Chicago. Support is coming from today’s key U.S. jobs report showing less jobs growth than expected. However, bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day. Oscillators are bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 106 22/32 and then at 107 5/32–today’s high. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels, with heavier stops just above today’s high. Shorter-term technical support lies at today’s low of 106 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 even.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 106 2/32
1st Support:—– 105 26/32
2nd Support:—– 105 12/32
1st Resistance:– 106 16/32
2nd Resistance:– 106 24/32

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning dealings. Oscillators are bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 104.28.5, and then just above resistance at today’s high of 104.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral, but turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is now turning back south. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at today’s low of 104.15.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this week’s low of 104.05.0.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 104.14.0
1st Support:—— 104.09.0
2nd Support:—— 104.03.0
1st Resistance:— 104.20.0
2nd Resistance:— 104.25.0