Pre-market update (updated 7:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -0.8% lower.
  • Asian markets traded -0.8% lower.
  • US futures are trading moderately lower.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Treasury Budget (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite opening lower, SPX managed to finish higher for a fifth straight day, the first time that has occurred since 3/7-3/12.
  • However, the gains that are being made are sluggish at best, and without much fanfare.
  • Volume continues to drop unbelievably lower on SPX.
  • Setting up for a pullback at the very least heading into next week as buyers seem to be lacking conviction at these levels.
  • Market remains well overbought on multiple time frames.
  • For a while, the rally off of the 6/4 lows looked more like a bear-flag forming, but no longer with the strength in the market over the last month.
  • If the SPX is to finish again in the green today, it would be the first 6-day rally since the 12/7/10 – 12/14/10 – to say the least it hasn’t happened in a while.
  • SPX poised to make a move to 1422 and challenge the year’s highs.
  • Biggest news so far this week, technically, has been the SPX breaking out of the descending trend-line off of the 4/2 highs (as noted below).
  • It’s not uncommon to see large market rallies going into an incumbent re-election.
  • 30-min chart has us primarily trading in a sideways channel.
  • If you look at the 4 previous higher-highs in the market since the 6/4 bottom, then one could conclude that we’ve reached another temporary top, and are prime for another pullback.
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • At this point, uptrend support rests at 1354.
  • SPX trading above all significant moving averages (10,20,50,200).
  • VIX remains under 16.
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1354 for a new lower-low in the market.
  • Downside reversal signal still remains intact on the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator.

My Opinions & Trades:

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