Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading -0.4% lower.
- Asian markets were -1.2% lower
- US futures are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Yesterday’s sell-off took us below the 10-day moving average for the first time since 7/25.
- 20-day moving average is in play, and hasn’t been broken since the same time frame. Look for a test today at 1400.
- This recent 4-day sell-off has us approaching short-term oversold.
- A major sell-off today (about 30 points) would take us to the current upward trend line and 50-day moving average. Unlikely that happens, but it’s still good to note this on the chart.
- Volume remained low.
- Support at the recent breakout from previous consolidation level (1405) was broken yesterday.
- The pullback so far is not that worrisome from a bullish perspective, though it is lasting longer than I expected, which will temper expectations in the short-term for me.
- When we tested the 10-day moving average yesterday, unlike previous opportunities, bulls showed no desire to buy the dip.
- It’s not uncommon if we consolidate below the 1422 resistance level for a while. You just don’t want to see a steep sell-off after touching the 1422 level.
- Nice bounce in the VIX has the market just a shade below 16
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
- If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1354 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades:
