Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading -0.4% lower.
- Asian markets were mixed in their trading.
- US futures are flat ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence (10am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Yesterday’s price action saw the S&P give back a decent amount of gains it held during the day.
- One could make the argument that the price action since breaking the 1422 highs intraday, has been the result of a bull-flag on the daily.
- 30-min chart on SPX shows a well established bullish trend over the past month. Action since 8/21 has the potential for a new channel downward possibly forming.
- If we sell-off again today, watch the 20-day moving average to act as a possible support level for the market, in which bulls try to buy the dip at.
- Hard bounce for the market on Friday, and in particular the SPY bounced right off of the 20-day moving average and created a HUGE bullish engulfing pattern.
- 10-day moving average has been rather useless of late, largely going ignored by the indices.
- Going forward SPX needs to close above 1422 and take out 1426 recent intraday highs.
- Volume remains at ridiculously low levels – Monday was no better.
- We are well-off of overbought levels – which gives this market plenty of room to run.
- SharePlanner Reversal Indicator received a bullish confirmation signal.
- Support above the 1405 level was recaptured on Friday.
- With Friday’s bounce, the pullback we saw for most of last week should be presumed over at this point and that the a new higher-high should be established.
- Sharp spike in the VIX yesterday pushing it above 16.
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
- If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1354 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades:
