Pre-market Update (Updated 8:30am eastern):
- US futures are slightly down ahead of the open.
- European markets are trading mixed/flat.
- Asian markets traded in a wide range from -1.3% up to +0.9%
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (8:58am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX finally had a pullback yesterday that was done in a controlled and mild manner.
- Uptrend still remains in place.
- We could see a pullback to 1340 today without affecting the the uptrend currently in place.
- Market remains short-term overbought, and tends to remain in that area for weeks and months if the SPX’s uptrend is indeed legit.
- 50-day moving average yesterday ended up being the zone for the market’s bounce off lows.
- 1360 resistance will be in play again today.
- After that resistance level is cleared, then our next resistance level hovers at 1401 – represents the slightly descending resistance level off of the 4/2/12 highs.
- The FOMC Statement became a non-news event.
- The move off of the June 4th lows is very similar to the bullishness that we saw in October of last year and September 2010.
- Also important is the angle of the 10-day moving average, when it turns suddenly steeper in slope like it has over the past four trading sessions, it can be a good indication that the market is ready to rally for an extended period of time.
- By steep I mean by more than 45 degrees. Refer to price action from late December 2011 and January 2012.
- There is now an established uptrend in place on SPX off of the 6/4 lows with consecutive higher-highs and higher-lows now (two of each).
- SPX confirmed the inverse head and shoulders pattern last Friday.
- Of late, respectable support lies at the 10-day moving average.
- Has touched it multiple times in the past 2 weeks and held each time.
- A break below 1306 would represent a resumption of the downward trend.
- VIX, despite yesterday’s sell-off, continued to drop all the way down to 17.
My Opinions & Trades:
