This post is a guest contribution by Bennet Sedacca*, President of Atlantic Advisors Asset Management
In the chart below, please note the very simple channel in long bond futures going back to the beginning of the bull market. Prices seem to top every 5 years and, right on schedule, they’ve topped again.
Click here or on the chart below for a larger image.
The usual correction is in the 18-25% range if it revisits the lower end of the channel. From the top, at roughly 142, a 25% move would be to 106 or so, which is still a whopping 4.4%. I think is far too low considering a) what actually now sits in the Treasury and b) the sheer amount of global supply that is forthcoming. Even in a slow economy, I think foreigners will need to be sellers. I am finishing up my Mortgage Backed Securities program today and heading to more cash.
One more thing. The secular bull market in stocks, in my opinion, ran from 1974 to 2000. Twenty-six years. The bull market in bonds looks like it ran from 1982-2008, also twenty-six years and exactly the length of time I have been at this. With the “blow-off” move we just had, my guess is that the top is in, perhaps for a very long time … like a decade.
Using a Fibonacci analysis leads us to targets that are … well, nauseating and could be a 50% retracement of the whole move. So buyers of long bonds beware. And if you want to refinance, and can actually find a good program, I wouldn’t hesitate. That goes for individuals and corporations alike. Why the Treasury is BUYING bonds at these levels instead of selling long Treasuries is beyond me.
Click here or on the chart below for a larger image.
* President of Atlantic Advisors Asset Management, Bennet Sedacca brings with him more than 26 years of securities industry experience. From 1981 to 1997 he worked for several major investment banks, specializing in high-grade fixed-income securities marketing, trading and portfolio management. In 1997 he formed Sedacca Capital Management focusing on portfolio management for high-net worth individuals and small to mid-sized institutions.
