Trend or Insignificant Noise?

Highlights based on trading on Friday, June 15, 2012:

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,342.84) rose 13.74 points or 1.03% on Friday. Stocks rose on hopes that central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets.

NYSE volume rose 19%, thanks largely to repositioning at futures and options expiration. Except for this repositioning, volume patterns generally have been bearish for months, with a tendency toward lower volume on rallies and higher volume on declines, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure.

Short term, over the past two weeks, stock price indexes have recovered nearly half of their losses from their April highs. That is a typical retracement for a counter-trend minor correction. In Dow Theory, Minor Ripple price fluctuations typically last only one day to three weeks. The Minor Ripple fluctuation is ignored as insignificant noise by the Dow Theory.

The larger stock market trend still appears more bearish than bullish since the SPX peak at 1,422.38 on 4/2/12. The path of least resistance appears to be down.

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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1348.45, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1,291.82, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price has pulled back sharply but remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/11/12. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.80, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/13/12, turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/8/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. JJC turned systematically bearish on 5/31/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.17% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
2.12% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
2.29% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.15% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
1.90% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
7.67% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
1.29% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
4.24% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
4.29% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.61% , MDP , MEREDITH
9.80% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.95% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.43% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.70% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.46% , SYK , STRYKER
6.63% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
1.82% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.67% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
1.27% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
4.18% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.86% , BLL , BALL
4.07% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
3.35% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
3.30% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
2.85% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
1.88% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.69% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
6.29% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
2.25% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.78% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
4.73% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
1.40% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.61% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.31% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.19% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.40% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-2.00% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-1.26% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-1.08% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.49% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.93% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.62% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.79% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.26% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.23% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.48% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.25% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-0.85% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.38% , SUN , SUNOCO
-1.28% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.47% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.93% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-1.35% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.35% , CVS , CVS
-0.84% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.23% , AET , AETNA
-0.81% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.59% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-0.46% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-0.68% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.35% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.08% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.57% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-0.32% , DELL , DELL
-0.25% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.04% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.85% Russia MV, RSX
2.58% Italy Index, EWI
2.43% India PS, PIN
2.37% France Index, EWQ
2.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.29% Austria Index, EWO
2.23% Energy Global, IXC
2.21% Germany Index, EWG
2.21% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.12% China 25 iS, FXI
2.03% Singapore Index, EWS
1.90% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.89% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.88% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.86% Energy DJ, IYE
1.84% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.82% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.77% Networking, IGN
1.77% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.73% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.72% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.61% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.59% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.57% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.57% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.54% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.50% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.49% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.47% European VIPERs, VGK
1.44% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.42% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.41% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.41% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.40% Australia Index, EWA
1.40% EAFE Index, EFA
1.40% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.40% Japan Index, EWJ
1.37% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.36% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.34% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.33% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.27% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.27% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.25% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.24% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.22% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.22% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.19% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.15% Sweden Index, EWD
1.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.13% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.12% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.11% Global 100, IOO
1.11% South Africa Index, EZA
1.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.07% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.07% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.03% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.03% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.01% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.00% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.00% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.99% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.99% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.97% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.96% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.95% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.95% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.95% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.94% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.92% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.92% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.91% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.89% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.87% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.84% Mexico Index, EWW
0.84% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.84% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.78% Canada Index, EWC
0.77% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.73% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.73% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.72% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.72% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.70% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.70% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.67% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.63% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.63% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.63% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.62% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.61% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.60% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.56% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.56% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.50% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.50% South Korea Index, EWY
0.46% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.46% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.44% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.41% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.41% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.39% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.34% Water Resources, PHO
0.34% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.34% Spain Index, EWP
0.27% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.24% Belgium Index, EWK
0.24% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.23% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.20% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.18% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.17% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.12% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.11% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.16% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.28% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.32% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.43% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.46% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.52% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.52% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.57% Dividend International, PID
-1.04% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH