Highlights based on trading on Tuesday, May 22 , 2012:
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,316.63) rose 0.64 points or 0.05% on Tuesday–but trendlines are still pointing down.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
Chile MSCI iS, ECH
India PS, PIN
India Earnings WTree, EPI
Brazil Index, EWZ
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months. A potential trend change was suggested as early as 3/6/12, when both Industrials and Transports fell below their lows of the previous 4 weeks. The Averages gave an even earlier warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/18/12 after falling below its 50-day SMA on 4/30/12. Confirming this downtrend, absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/18/12 after falling below its 50-day SMA on 5/3/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/22/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/22/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 5/16/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 5/18/12. Systematically, OEX/SPX remains bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/22/12, reconfirming renewed downside momentum. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/18/12. Systematically, MDY/SPY is neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but with the 50-day SMA still slightly above the 200-day SMA.
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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking
Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency at the 2012 market highs. That is bearish because when the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean. Some of the most recent data suggests that investors’ sentiment may be beginning to shift away from bullish complacency.
AAII Sentiment: There were 51.64% Bulls and 20.19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment in more than a year, since 52.34% Bulls on 1/13/11. As of 5/17/12, however, sentiment had reversed, with only 23.58% Bulls and 45.97% Bears.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment: according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors, there were 54.8% Bulls reported on 2/15/11, the highest since the stock market top in May, 2011. On 5/9/12, there were only 20.4% Bears, the lowest level since 6/1/11. This is still suggesting too many bulls.
VIX Fear Index rose to an intraday peak of 25.14 on 5/18/12, the highest level since 12/19/12, suggesting a beginning of a shift toward skepticism from bullish complacency. VIX fell to 13.66 intraday on 3/16/12, its lowest level since 6/20/07, and down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11. That large drop indicated a shift away from fear to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1379.79, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1279.38, 200-day SMA
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 5/22/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 5/22/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 5/14/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 6 months on 5/22/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/15/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/18/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.59% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
5.51% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
7.42% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.24% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.26% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
3.49% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
2.71% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.60% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.89% , IGV , Software, IGV
2.94% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.25% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
0.93% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.76% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
3.16% , KBH , KB HOME
1.76% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.70% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
2.42% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
2.37% , MAS , MASCO
1.69% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.43% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.98% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.25% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
1.88% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
3.16% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.84% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.51% , EP , EL PASO
0.20% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
1.95% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.51% , AN , AUTONATION
1.39% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
0.91% , LLY , ELI LILLY
1.25% , A , AGILENT TECH
0.37% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.75% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.33% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.51% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-4.77% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-3.50% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-5.62% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.60% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
-2.01% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-2.58% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.87% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.78% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.48% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-2.02% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.63% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-0.39% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.40% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-1.37% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.30% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.64% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-3.12% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-1.85% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.08% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.43% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.23% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.94% , CSX , CSX
-1.66% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.28% , AA , ALCOA
-0.28% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.25% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.75% , ASH , ASHLAND
-0.70% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.83% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.55% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.69% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.20% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.04% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.92% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.79% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.76% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.71% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.56% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.55% Austria Index, EWO
0.54% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.54% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.44% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.44% Sweden Index, EWD
0.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.37% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.33% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.30% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.30% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.30% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% Italy Index, EWI
0.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.25% Singapore Index, EWS
0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.22% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.22% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.17% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.17% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.17% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% Water Resources, PHO
0.12% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.12% Networking, IGN
0.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.07% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.06% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.05% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.01% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.03% Energy Global, IXC
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.09% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.10% Global 100, IOO
-0.11% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.11% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.15% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.18% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.19% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.22% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.22% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.22% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.24% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.24% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.25% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.27% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.27% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.27% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.32% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.32% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.37% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.44% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.45% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.45% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% Canada Index, EWC
-0.47% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.48% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.49% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.49% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.49% Dividend International, PID
-0.51% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.55% Spain Index, EWP
-0.55% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.59% Germany Index, EWG
-0.59% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.60% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.62% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.65% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.66% Australia Index, EWA
-0.66% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.68% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.70% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.72% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.73% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.73% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.75% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.80% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.85% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.88% France Index, EWQ
-0.92% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.92% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.93% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.03% Russia MV, RSX
-1.05% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.10% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.12% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.23% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.28% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.37% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.43% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.48% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.51% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.66% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.67% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.70% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.91% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.02% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.21% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.58% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.78% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.87% India PS, PIN
