We’re playing catch-up on the global markets this morning.
The Nikkei gapped up 100 points on Monday morning, right overthecritical 10,200 markandthe index hasgained another 100 points into this morning’s close so up about 1.5% in two days. The Hang Seng has continued it’s strong 5-day recovery, where it’s up1,500 points in 4 days, back to 21,000 and up 7.5% from the bottom while the Shangai Composite is back to 2,930, neatly completing a 250-point bounce after the 800-poiint drop, right in that 32% Fibonacci zone so the 3,000 line is going to by hyper-critical to determine further strength in China. Europe is up at well but the FTSE, CAC and DAX are all running out of gas at the 5% rule over 5 days of trading back up.
Although the G20 pledged this weekend to continue to throw money into the global economy, US indexes are nowhere near 5% gains off last week’s lows but they are working on that in the futures as we are up about 1% across the board. We’re not going to make 5% so let’s be real (this is not China yet, that flag gets raised over the White House later this month) – 4% gains off the lows can take us back to: Dow 9,600, S&P 1,030, Nasdaq 2,038, NYSE 6,700 and Russell 577. Since the S&P, NYSE and Nas would all be at about new highs for the year, that in itself would be some trick so let’s watch Russell 577 as the line in the sand because they’ve been well above that markand should have no trouble getting over thatline if this rally is real.Otherwise, it may just be another round of pre-market pumping on light volume trying to foment excitment that doesn’t really exist during actual trading hours.
I am in the process of a major review of the market crash and I’m still not convinced we should be over 9,100. You can read Part 1 and Part 2 of my commentary, whichtakes us through the events leading up to the March crash so far so perhaps that is whyI’m still feeling bearishthis morning but I do wonder howdo we really know this 20% market run (from July 10th) is all that different from the 20% run we had from November 20th to January 5th. 4M people have lost their jobs since Jan 5th and the job seeking population continues to grow at the usual 120,000 a month…
