OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early morning trading today.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Many commodity markets were pushed lower onMonday as crude oil sold off sharply. Crudeoil is steady to weaker early today, but itlooks like many other commodity markets areset to rebound today, in the “TurnaroundTuesday” phenomenon, whereby market priceaction from Monday gets at least partiallyreversed.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in earlymorning trading today. Bulls and bears arestill fighting for near-term technicalcontrol, with the bears recently gainingfresh downside near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term movingaverages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearishearly today. The 4-day moving average isbelow the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day isbelow the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral early today. Today, shorter-termtechnical support comes in at the overnightlow of 886.70 and then at 875.00. Sell stopslikely reside just under those levels.Upside resistance for active traders todayis located at 900.00 and then 910.00. Buystops are likely located just above thoselevels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————-898.50
1st Support:——– 877.85
2nd Support:——– 867.10
1st Resistance:—– 909.25
2nd Resistance:—– 929.90
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term movingaverages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish earlytoday. The 4-day moving average is below the9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is belowthe 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,slow stochastics) are neutral early today.Shorter-term technical support is located atMonday’s low 1,421.00 and then at 1,410.00.Sell stops likely reside just below thoselevels. On the upside, short-term resistanceis seen at the overnight high of 1,434.00and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops are likelylocated just above those levels.
Wyckoff’sIntra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 1,454.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,439.10
1st Support:—— 1,409.90
2nd Support:—— 1,391.85
1st Resistance:— 1,457.20
2nd Resistance:— 1,486.35
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside justbelow support at Monday’s low of 8,277 andthen more stops just below support at 8,250.Buy stops likely reside just above shorter- term technical resistance at 8,350 and thenat 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages arebearish early today, as the 4-day movingaverage is below the 9-day and 18-day.. The9-day moving average is below the 18-daymoving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 8,297
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,327
1st Support:—— 8,233
2nd Support:—— 8,184
1st Resistance:— 8,376
2nd Resistance:— 8,470
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker in earlytrading today, on a pullback from solidgains on Monday. The bears still have theoverall near-term technical advantage.However, the bulls have made progressrecently that does hint at a near-termmarket bottom being in place.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term movingaverages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish earlytoday. The 4-day moving average is above the9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18- day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral early today.Shorter-term technical support lies at theovernight low of 115 27/32 and then at 11516/32. Sell stops likely reside just belowthose levels. Shorter-term technicalresistance lies at the overnight high of 11619/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 115 18/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32–lifetime high
122 11/32–Previous Month’s high
122 10/32–100-day moving average
117 16/32–second pivot point resistance
116 29/32–first pivot point resistance
116 13/32–previous day’s high
116 10/32–previous day’s close
115 26/32–pivot point
115 14/32–4-day moving average
115 7/32–first pivot point support
114 27/32–18-day moving average
114 25/32–9-day moving average
114 23/32–previous day’s low
114 12/32–previous month’s low
114 4/32–second pivot point support
110 8/32–lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-termoscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) areneutral to bullish early today. Buy stopslikely reside just above shorter-termtechnical resistance at the overnight high of 115.12.0 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day movingaverage. Sell stop orders are likely locatedjust below support at 114.24.0 and then atof 114.16.0.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day MarketRating: 4.4
Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 114.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32–lifetime high
120 14/32–previous month’s high
119 11/32–100-day moving average
115 29/32–second pivot point resistance
115 17/32–first pivot point resistance
115 12/32–previous month’s low
115 8/32–previous day’s high
115 6/32–previous day’s close
114 29/32–pivot point
114 25/32–18-day moving average
114 24/32–4-day moving average
114 17/32–first pivot point support
114 16/32–9-day moving average
114 8/32–previous day’s low
113 29/32–second pivot point support
109 –lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is lower inearly trading today. Trading has beenchoppy. Bulls are still working on a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, butneed to show more power soon. Slowstochastics for the dollar index are bearishearly today. The dollar index finds shorter- term technical resistance at 81.00 and then
at the overnight high of 81.28. Shorter-termsupport is seen at 80.50 and then at 80.31.Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 80.42.
Wyckoff’sIntra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The September Euro is higher in earlyelectronic trading. Prices are stilltrending lower from the June high, buttrading has been choppy. Euro finds sellstop orders are likely located just belowtechnical support at 1.3900 and then at theovernight low of 1.3821. Shorter-termtechnical resistance for the Euro is seen at1.4000 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. Slowstochastics for the Euro are bullish earlytoday. Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: 1.4063.
Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on acorrective bounce from solid losses onMonday. Prices hit a fresh five-week lowovernight. Prices are still trending lowerfrom the June high. For August gold,shorter-term technical resistance is seen at$930.00 and then at Monday’s high of$935.60. Buy stops likely reside just abovethose levels. Sell stops likely reside justbelow support at $920.00 and then at the overnight low of $913.20. Today’s key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early todayand hit a fresh three-week low overnight.Bulls are fading, but do still have theoverall near-term technical advantage. InAugust crude, look for buy stops to residejust above resistance at $68.00 and thenjust above resistance at $69.00. Look forsell stops just below technical support at$67.00 and then more sell stops just belowsupport at the overnight low of $66.37.Today’s key near-term Fibonaccisupport/resistance level: $69.83.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, ona corrective bounce from solid losses onMonday. Grain bulls are fading. The grainscontinue to look to the outside markets fordirection. The outside markets are slightlybullish for grains early today as the U.S.stock indexes are firmer, crude oil pricesare steady and the U.S. dollar is weaker.Weather in the Corn Belt at present is stilldeemed bearish for corn and soybeans. Buttemperatures in the Corn Belt are heating upheading into July.
