Tug of War – (GDXJ) (XRT) – The Wagner Daily
The Wagner Daily – October 14, 2011
Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs
Commentary:
Stocks ended the day mixed on light trade. For the second consecutive day price action was whippy but unlike Wednesday, stocks closed near session highs on Thursday. Further there was a clear divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indices. By the closing bell the tech-rich index had tacked on 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. The S&P MidCap 400 closed higher by a modest 0.2%.
For the fifth time in seven days market internals were mixed. Volume was down sharply across the board. On the Nasdaq turnover fell by 15.0% and on the NYSE by 16.0%. However, the advancing volume to declining volume ratio posted mixed results. On the Big Board declining volume topped advancing volume by a factor of 1.9 to 1 but on the Nasdaq advancing volume held the upper hand as the spread ratio ended the session at a plus 2.0 to 1.
The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) formed a reversal candle on Wednesday as it overcut resistance of its declining 20-day EMA. Yesterday GDXJ tested support at the four day low before reversing to close near resistance of the 20-day EMA. A volume fueled move back below the four day low of $29.68 could provide a short entry trigger for this ETF.
The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has spent the past two sessions churning at resistance of its 200-day MA. Yesterday, on higher volume XRT attempted to move higher but ultimately reversed and closed in the bottom half of the trading range as the market closed near session highs. A move back below the two day low of $49.64 could result in a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are monitoring XRT carefully for a possible short entry.
The market is clearly at an inflection point as there has been a battle between bears and bulls over the past two sessions. This battle has manifested itself in very whippy price action. However, the lack of volume and overall weak internals suggests that bears may soon wrestle control of the action and that we could be headed for another leg lower.
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com.
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