Tuesday, November 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock indexes and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It looks like the “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon will impact many markets today. This phenomenon occurs when markets reverse price direction from that seen Monday.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today on more short covering and fresh bargain-hunting buying interest.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 838.30 and then at 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s high of 866.00 and then at 885.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 832.45
1st Support:——– 798.90
2nd Support:——– 749.75
1st Resistance:—– 851.60
2nd Resistance:—– 915.15
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,133.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,100.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,163.00 and then at 1,190.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,161.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,128.00
1st Support:—— 1,093.00
2nd Support:—— 1,039.00
1st Resistance:— 1,182.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,217.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,250 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,290
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,355
1st Support:—— 8,125
2nd Support:—— 7,865
1st Resistance:— 8,615
2nd Resistance:— 8,845
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125 16/32 and then at 125 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 126 16/32 and then at 127 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 125 4/32
1st Support:—– 123 23/32 2nd Support:—– 122 29/32
1st Resistance:– 125 30/32
2nd Resistance:– 127 11/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 120.12.5 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.12.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 119 21/32
1st Support:—– 118 30/32 2nd Support:—– 118 16/32
1st Resistance:– 120 3/32
2nd Resistance:– 120 26/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 87.50 and then at 88.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.74 and then at 86.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2750 and then just below support at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at the overnight high of 1.2934. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on a corrective profit-taking pullback. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $822.00 and then at Monday’s high of $831.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $800.00 and then at Monday’s low of $787.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $781.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today, on a corrective pullback from big gains Monday. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $52.00 and then just above resistance at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $50.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $49.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from solid gains Monday. The key “outside markets” are beerish early today–crude oil prices are solidly lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction.
