Do or DIE today!
We already went long in Member Chat last night, picking up Russell (/TF) futures off the 630 line but they stopped us out at 660 (up $3,000 per contract) so we switched horses to Oil (/CL) Futures at $80 in my morning Alert to Members and that’s already at $81.25, which is up $1,250 per contract. Our third play this morning was shorting gold (/YG) at $1,765 and that one is also a quick score, with gold backing down below $1,755 already but gold is just $33.20 per dollar per contract so up $332 on that one, which is why we usually don’t play it – too boring!
Pre-market trading has been the only time it’s been safe to be bullish for the past couple of weeks as we’ve suffered the most relentless sell-off since 2008. As I said in yesterday’s post, we expect the Fed to take action this afternoon (not just make nice noises) – anything less than that will be a disappointment – possibly a catastrophic one, so we’ve left our well-hedged hedges but we cashed out our directional short plays on yesterday’s dip. As I said in last night’s Member Chat:
It’s (the market drop) not extraordinary until/unless we break those -10% levels on our new chart. Otherwise, it’s a 20% pullback off a 100% run-up and that is very ordinary, although this is coming a bit sharply… There is nothing wrong with cashing out and waiting for clarity but, as I said above – we’re SUPPOSED to have a 20% pullback after a 100% run in the markets. I’m sorry this time was not different and that we didn’t go to the moon just because the charts looked good but this is reality. We were up on thin volume and now we are down on heavy volume, pretty much right after we were told that there would be no more heavy volume.
As you can see from the extended Big Chart, we’re just down 20% from the top, which was 100% off the bottom so we have one of those neat little Fibonacci retracements that we PLANNED ON in February, when our top was projected to be, at most, 1,440 on the S&P (1,364 was our best day) and our 50% retracement line was (drum roll please) – 1,122. Where did we finish yesterday?…
