Stocks churned, going nowhere on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,292.48) rose 0.03% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: 12,449.45) fell 0.10%. Volume on the NYSE fell 6%.

Up 12 of the past 15 trading days, SPX appears overbought. SPX has relatively low upside momentum despite this apparent persistent advance. With the majority of investors already bullish, and therefore already in the market, stocks may have difficulty extending the rally much further at this time.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above its 50-day SMA and above the highs of the previous 5 trading days, indicating renewed upside momentum for the short term.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the high of the previous 10 months, thereby reconfirming its bullish major trend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above 7-week highs and above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a bounce for the short-term price trend.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.2% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.8% Bears as of 1/11/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This represents moderately above-average bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 1/10/12, hitting 20.05 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1,296.46, high of 1/10/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1284.62, high of 1/3/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1258.20, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above its 50-day SMA and above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 1/11/12, indicating renewed upside momentum for the short term. TLT remains well above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 117.57, 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 1/11/12, indicating renewed upside momentum for the short term. IEF remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.45, 104.25, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.04 and 106.66.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the high of the previous 10 months on 1/11/12, thereby reconfirming its bullish major trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.58, 22.24, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above 7-week highs on 1/11/12 and above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a bounce for the short-term price trend. Longer term, DBA price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, confirming a bearish major downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 4 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby signaling a major uptrend. Support 38.56. 37.87, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 1/11/12 and above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a minor uptrend. GLD fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/29/11, confirming a significant bearish trend. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. GLD remains below its 50-day SMA. Support: 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 160.05, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 3-year lows on 12/19/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.54% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
16.36% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
17.03% , PWER , POWER ONE
11.95% , KBH , KB HOME
17.56% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
8.01% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
7.80% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
1.34% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
7.18% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
4.62% , MAS , MASCO
3.70% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.55% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.07% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.75% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
4.90% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.99% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.96% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
7.29% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
4.17% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
4.82% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
4.39% , ITT , ITT INDS
4.23% , C , CITIGROUP
4.05% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.48% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
2.56% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.46% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.76% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
4.65% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.54% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
5.56% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.65% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
3.35% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.65% , IGV , Software, IGV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-18.63% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-12.51% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-5.04% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.65% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-2.59% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-4.92% , NBR , NABORS
-2.85% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-1.27% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.00% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.85% , KO , COCA COLA
-1.25% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-3.02% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-0.59% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-2.24% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.94% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-6.89% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.69% , VFC , VF
-0.99% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.48% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-2.21% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.47% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.51% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.08% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.46% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.47% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-1.79% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-1.26% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-1.69% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
-1.73% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.23% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-0.41% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-1.88% , PPL , PPL
-1.22% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.56% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.31% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.08% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.63% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.30% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.99% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.97% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.97% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.89% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.87% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.83% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.78% Networking, IGN
0.70% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.69% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.68% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.65% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.64% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.63% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.61% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.59% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.59% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.58% Australia Index, EWA
0.58% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.57% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.57% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.53% Mexico Index, EWW
0.52% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.49% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.49% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.48% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.47% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.44% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.43% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.42% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.41% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.40% Water Resources, PHO
0.39% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.39% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.38% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.36% Russia MV, RSX
0.35% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.35% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.34% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.31% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.31% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.31% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.29% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.29% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.28% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.28% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.27% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.26% Italy Index, EWI
0.26% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.22% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.20% Germany Index, EWG
0.20% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.18% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.18% Singapore Index, EWS
0.17% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.16% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.14% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.12% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.08% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.03% China 25 iS, FXI
0.03% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.02% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.03% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.07% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.07% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.11% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.13% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.13% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.13% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.14% Austria Index, EWO
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.20% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.20% France Index, EWQ
-0.29% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.30% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.32% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.32% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.32% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.36% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.41% Dividend International, PID
-0.41% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.43% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.43% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.43% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.45% India PS, PIN
-0.45% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.46% Global 100, IOO
-0.48% Canada Index, EWC
-0.51% Spain Index, EWP
-0.51% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.54% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.58% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.58% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.62% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.79% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.81% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.94% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.98% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.99% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.07% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.07% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.09% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.27% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.31% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.34% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.45% Energy Global, IXC