U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/25/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 months on 7/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend.
Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 7/25/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 7/25/14 and remains systematically bearish.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to its highest level in nearly 8 weeks on 7/25/14. EEM /SPY currently remains systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is now rising up toward the falling 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover is likely in days ahead.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/25/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,978.34, down 0.48%) absolute price opened lower on a downside gap and chopped lower still for 115 minutes. Prices made their lows for the day at 11:25 am ET and stabilized at a low level into a lackluster close. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 3 trading days.
NYSE total volume fell 14% to a level 20% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 137, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD remain relatively weak. Both are well below their June-July peaks. Both fell below their lows of the previous 7 weeks on 7/17/14. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 also remains relatively weak, well below its highs of June and July. It turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.
Stock prices are overbought and overvalued, sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/16/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 7/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in nearly 6 months on 7/24/14. BKF/SPY currently remains systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is now rising up toward the falling 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover is possible in days ahead.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to its highest level in nearly 8 weeks on 7/25/14. EEM /SPY currently remains systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is now rising up toward the falling 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover is likely in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/23/14, reconfirming a significant rally. Although OEF/SPY remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA, a shift in momentum appears to be at hand now. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 21 months on 7/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/25/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/25/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price has stayed systematically neutral most of the time since 7/9/14, when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a strong position, still rising above the 200-day SMA. Support 36.58, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD currently is systematically bullish, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA and with the price above both SMAs. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 10 months on 7/18/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/24/14, possibly suggesting a minor pullback correction. SLV remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/24/14, possibly suggesting a minor pullback correction. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/16/14, but SLV/GLD is still weeks away from a bullish 50>200 SMA crossover.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.56% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
8.92% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
10.88% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
6.76% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.93% , ZION , ZIONS
2.19% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
0.82% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.73% , OMC , OMNICOM
3.42% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
2.41% , XRX , XEROX
2.01% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.73% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.45% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.72% , CMA , COMERICA
0.37% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.84% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.12% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.29% , BCR , C R BARD
0.41% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.54% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.57% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
2.30% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.33% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.07% , EMC , EMC
7.05% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.18% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.04% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
0.02% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.08% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.03% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.03% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.11% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-9.87% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-9.65% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-0.73% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-4.08% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.41% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-5.11% , AON , AON
-3.39% , CB , CHUBB
-1.50% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.73% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.65% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-1.98% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.94% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-2.45% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-1.80% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-1.83% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-1.73% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-3.26% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-1.51% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-3.75% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-0.69% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.65% , ALTR , ALTERA
-1.52% , NCR , NCR
-0.56% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.95% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.95% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-0.93% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.51% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.64% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.46% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.76% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.25% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-3.27% , HUM , HUMANA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.01% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.48% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.18% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.16% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.65% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.51% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.48% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.43% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.40% , Spain Index, EWP
0.39% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.39% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.39% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.31% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.28% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.26% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.25% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.21% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.21% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.19% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.19% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.17% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.11% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.10% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.08% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.10% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.13% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.13% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.14% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.15% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.15% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.21% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.22% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.23% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.26% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.27% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.31% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.33% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.33% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.34% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.35% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.35% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.37% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.37% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.37% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.39% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.39% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.40% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.40% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.40% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.41% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.42% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.42% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.43% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.46% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.47% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.47% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.49% , Global 100, IOO
-0.50% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.50% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.50% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.51% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.51% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.51% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.51% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.52% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.53% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.53% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.53% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.53% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.53% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.56% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.56% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.57% , Dividend International, PID
-0.57% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.58% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.63% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.63% , Networking, IGN
-0.63% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.64% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.64% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.64% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.65% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.66% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.67% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.69% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.70% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.71% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.71% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.71% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.72% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.72% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.72% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.74% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.74% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.75% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.76% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.78% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.79% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.79% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.79% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.80% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.80% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.82% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.85% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.88% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.90% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.90% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.91% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.94% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.95% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.00% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.00% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.03% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.11% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.13% , India PS, PIN
-1.16% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.16% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.17% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.39% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.41% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.49% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.60% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.61% , France Index, EWQ
-1.98% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.11% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
1946.01, 50-day SMA
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1851.57, 200-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
