Thursday, January 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index and crude oil prices.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As the U.S. dollar has rebounded the past few weeks, traders have unwound the dollar “carry trade” that had been prevalent for months. The carry trade involved selling the U.S. dollar and buying many other commodity futures markets, including crude oil. Now that the carry trade is no longer being employed, the commodity markets are focusing more on their own individual supply and demand fundamentals. That’s a good thing for the market place.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls needed to show some power fter last week’s drubbing. Bulls are still hanging on to the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,094.00 and then at 1,086.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,103.30 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,819.75 and then at this week’s high of 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,808.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,200 and then more stops just below support at 10,175. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at 10,275. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Bulls are fading again and need to show fresh power soon.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 20/32 and then at 117 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 13/32 and then at 118 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 12/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
119 14/32–second pivot point resistance
119 4/32–previous day’s high
118 26/32–first pivot point resistance
118 20/32–100-day moving average
118 16/32–pivot point
118 13/32–4-day moving average
118 6/32–previous day’s close
118 6/32–previous day’s low
117 30/32–9-day moving average
117 28/32–first pivot point support
117 18/32–second pivot point support
116 25/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.22.5 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.08.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 17/32–second pivot point resistance
118 9/32–previous day’s high
118 2/32–first pivot point resistance
117 26/32–pivot point
117 25/32–4-day moving average
117 19/32–previous day’s close
117 18/32–previous day’s low
117 16/32–9-day moving average
117 11/32–first pivot point support
117 4/32–100-day moving average
117 3/32–second pivot point support
116 24/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh five-month high overnight. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.00 and then at the overnight high of 79.26. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.75 and then at 78.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.09. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Prices hit another fresh six-month low overnight. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3929 and then at 1.3900. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4051 and then at 1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4028. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Trading has turned choppy. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,104.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,088.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,080.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,104.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering. Bulls have faded recently. Prices are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at this week’s high of $75.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at the overnight low of $73.35. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on tepid short covering in bear markets. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently.
