The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early morning dealings, on a corrective pullback from strong gains Monday. The greenback is supported on a flight-to- quality basis due to Middle East tensions that are still running high. Slow stochastics are bullish again today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.77 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00. The September Euro is slightly higher in early trading, but did dip to a fresh nearly three-month low in overnight trading. The Euro today finds heavy sell stop orders are likely located just below shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2547 and then more sell stops just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2609 and then at 1.2650. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bearish today.
Gold is trading slightly lower in early morning dealings, but near the overnight high. Bulls are still defensive after the big sell off Monday. In August gold, shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of $642.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $640.00. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $655.00 and then more buy stops just above resistance at $660.00.
Prices are trading solidly higher in early electronic dealings, and nearer the overnight high. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $77.00 and then at Monday’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $75.15, and then just below support at $74.50.
Prices were firmer in overnight electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses Monday. Once again, updated weather forecasts will be key today. Weather models now are not showing as much heat in the Corn Belt in the near term, and with some slightly better chances for rain. But the weather patterns in the Corn Belt certainly cannot be called bearish. For corn, we are right at the critical pollination stage for much of the crop. My bias is that the weather market in the grains is not finished and that there will be more upside fireworks in the near term–but trading will likely remain choppy.