Sharp moves in the price of the U.S. dollar sometimes appear to coincide with or precede sharp movements in a variety of markets. One of the most dramatic examples is the plunge in the U.S. dollar on 10/19/1987, which precipitated one of the largest the stock market crashes ever on the same day. Also, after the U.S. dollar fell to a new all-time low on 9/20/2007, the S&P 500 peaked 3 weeks later on 10/11/2007 and began the 50% stock price wipeout of 2007-2009. The relationship between U.S. dollar and other markets is not always so consistent. Nevertheless, astute traders keep an eye out for sharp movements in the U.S. dollar.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/27/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1960.96, up 0.19%) absolute price traded choppy with a moderate downside bias for nearly 4 hours on Friday. After making its intraday low at 1:20 pm, SPX reversed to the upside and closed very near its highest levels of the day and above the closing price highs of the previous 3 trading days. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. Some of the afternoon price action might be due to annual adjustments to the Russell indexes.
NYSE total volume rose 33% to a level 11% above its 200-day SMA, reflecting annual adjustments to the Russell indexes. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 366, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down after hitting an overbought level above 94 on 6/23/14.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/24/14 after failing to match the recent highs of 6/10/14. In addition, year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
For the very short term, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) seasonal tendencies have been bullish historically. Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, however, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Overvalued, overbought, bearish divergences, a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), and excessively bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. At the same time, the overwhelming bullish majority appears to be going on faith that central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies will make stocks rise ever higher, despite the obvious fact that central banks have failed to prevent numerous substantial market declines in the past.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/27/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months, above its 50-day SMA, and above its 200-day SMA on 6/19/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/23/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/24/14 and remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/25/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 6/20/14, turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.74% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.66% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.45% , QLGC , QLOGIC
4.53% , KBH , KB HOME
1.51% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.42% , DLX , DELUXE
2.06% , LB , L Brands, LB
1.06% , UIS , UNISYS
2.95% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.88% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.94% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.44% , NCR , NCR
1.12% , BLL , BALL
0.79% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.59% , CR , CRANE
1.44% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
2.19% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.75% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.35% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.30% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.29% , CVG , CONVERGYS
1.63% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.59% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
0.59% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.16% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.00% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.33% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.43% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.69% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
1.09% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.33% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.01% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.27% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.69% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.34% , DD , DU PONT
-3.88% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-1.71% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.55% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-2.13% , MBI , MBIA
-0.60% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.71% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.05% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.17% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-1.00% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-1.53% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.60% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.63% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.52% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.84% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.47% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.68% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-1.32% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-1.01% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.88% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-1.90% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.80% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-0.84% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-0.38% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.60% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.72% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.05% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.19% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.76% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.44% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.27% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.54% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.23% , India PS, PIN
0.96% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.85% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.85% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.82% , Canada Index, EWC
0.81% , Networking, IGN
0.79% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.77% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.75% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.73% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.70% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.69% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.67% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.66% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.64% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.63% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.62% , Dividend International, PID
0.62% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.61% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.61% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.60% , Water Resources, PHO
0.60% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.60% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.59% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.59% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.58% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.57% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.56% , Russia MV, RSX
0.56% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.56% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.53% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.53% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.47% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.47% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.44% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.43% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.43% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.42% , Germany Index, EWG
0.41% , Austria Index, EWO
0.41% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.41% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.40% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.40% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.39% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.36% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.35% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.34% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.34% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.33% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.31% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.31% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.30% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.30% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.29% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.29% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.27% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.26% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.26% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.26% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.25% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.25% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.24% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.24% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.24% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.24% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.23% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.22% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.20% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.20% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.20% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.19% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.19% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.19% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.18% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.17% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.17% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.17% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.16% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.13% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.13% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.12% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.12% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.09% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.09% , Global 100, IOO
0.08% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.08% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.07% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.07% , France Index, EWQ
0.06% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.04% , Energy Global, IXC
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.03% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.03% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.03% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.01% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.00% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.00% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.02% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.02% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.06% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.09% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.10% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.12% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.14% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.15% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.21% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.23% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.23% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.26% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.29% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.30% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.31% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.35% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.35% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.40% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.65% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.75% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1968.17, high of 6/24/14
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1909.58, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1824.90, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
