The Small Cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETFs continued to move up relative to the S&P 500 Cap Weighted Index. All 3 remain bullish. Absolute price trends for all 3 also remain bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 12-month highs on 5/13/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend.

Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

NASDAQ Composite absolute price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

Technology Stock Sector absolute price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price of XLF price also fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.31% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
7.47% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
5.59% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
3.62% , SLE , SARA LEE
0.55% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
3.45% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
2.73% , AA , ALCOA
2.12% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.67% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
1.91% , NOVL , NOVELL
1.73% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.80% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.82% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.85% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.76% , EBAY , EBAY
1.08% , XRX , XEROX
1.20% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.79% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
0.32% , BMS , BEMIS
2.99% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
1.85% , KR , KROGER
2.21% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
0.89% , SUN , SUNOCO
1.09% , SLM , SLM CORP
0.56% , NCR , NCR
0.73% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.79% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.44% , SYK , STRYKER
0.50% , CVS , CVS
0.88% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.66% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.47% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.82% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.76% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
0.23% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.13% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2.55% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.68% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.35% , GAS , NICOR

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.84% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.82% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.55% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-6.82% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.96% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-3.06% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.65% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-6.67% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-4.53% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-1.41% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-4.93% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-4.56% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.33% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-4.98% , FISV , FISERV
-2.20% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.27% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.95% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.01% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-2.44% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.07% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.20% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-3.34% , KG , KING PHARM
-3.61% , TGT , TARGET
-1.07% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-1.12% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-2.07% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.70% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-4.13% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-4.04% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.25% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.05% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-0.80% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.69% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-2.44% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.95% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.83% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.77% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.82% , COH , COACH
-2.25% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.16% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 30-month highs on 4/26/10 and, after trading below its 50-day SMA for 2 days, is now bullish again. Support 33.42 and 31.03. Resistance and 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and, after trading below its 50-day SMA for 2 days, is now bullish again. Support 31.35, 30.85, 28.44, and 28.15. Resistance 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral. Support 22.49 and 20.64. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price of XLF price also fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral. Support 15.68, 15.54, and 14.56. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price of XLP fell to an 8-month low and tested the 200-day SMA on 5/6/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 27.27, 26.99, and 24.95. Resistance 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 9-month lows on 5/11/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral. Support 32.14, 32.04, and 29.48. Resistance 35.47 and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral. Support 56.63, 52.29, and 51.34. Resistance 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 30.24, 30.24, 28.53, and 27.96. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 5/7/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLU crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bullish. Support 29.61, 28.68, and 25.76. Resistance 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below 3-month lows on 5/6/10 and, following a 2-day recovery, now is neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is bearishly below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 but has stabilized somewhat since. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of IWF fell below 8-week lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose further above previous all-time highs on 5/12/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1184.4, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 5/10/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio remains neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/5/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1285, 3.0055, and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high on 5/6/10. Support 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) continued to move further above rising 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. This means investors are choosing more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 12-month highs on 5/13/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 87.22 and 89.71.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/12/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.91, down from 2.99 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.80 on 5/7/10, a high level that indicates moderately bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1135.13, 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1135.13, high of 5/7/2010
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

0.66% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.55% South Korea Index, EWY
0.48% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.35% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.32% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.30% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.29% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.08% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.08% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.18% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.43% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.46% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.49% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.52% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.53% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.57% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.57% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.59% Australia Index, EWA
-0.61% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.62% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.63% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.64% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.67% Water Resources, PHO
-0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.69% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.70% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.70% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.70% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.75% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.76% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.77% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.77% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.78% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.79% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.79% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.81% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.81% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.82% Germany Index, EWG
-0.84% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.86% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.87% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.89% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.90% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.90% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.90% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.92% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.92% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.93% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.93% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.93% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.94% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.96% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.97% Dividend International, PID
-0.98% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.99% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.01% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.04% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.04% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.05% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.06% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.07% Canada Index, EWC
-1.07% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.11% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.12% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.14% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.14% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.15% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.15% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.16% Energy Global, IXC
-1.17% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.17% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.18% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.18% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.19% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.22% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.24% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.24% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.25% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.25% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.26% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.27% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.30% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.32% Global 100, IOO
-1.32% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.33% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.36% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.42% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.47% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.49% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.49% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.53% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.55% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.58% India PS, PIN
-1.58% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.61% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.62% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.63% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.63% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.67% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.72% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.74% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.81% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.82% France Index, EWQ
-1.82% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.89% Russia MV, RSX
-1.96% Networking, IGN
-1.97% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.02% Austria Index, EWO
-2.10% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.20% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.24% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.27% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.37% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-2.44% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.54% Italy Index, EWI
-2.57% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.91% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.06% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.39% Spain Index, EWP