The U.S. Dollar soared over 3% against the Japanese Yen after Japanese officials finally succumbed to mounting pressure to protect its export-driven economy and initiated its long-awaited intervention.
Early Tuesday night, with the Yen trading at another fresh 15-year low at 82.88, the Japanese government intervened by buying Dollars and selling Yen. Traders described their approach as very aggressive, hitting the market hard, fast and furious. This helped sustain Tuesday night’s rally and also may have sent a message to traders that it was serious at this time.
Analysts estimated the size of the intervention to be between $2 billion to $17 billion worth of Yen. The key to maintaining the pressure on the Yen will be periodic intervention episodes to prevent the Yen from going back under 83.00. This price has become the line in the sand for Japanese officials.
Despite vows to continue to fight what the Japanese believe is excessive intervention, Japan has to be careful not to irritate the rest of the world by propping up the Dollar while pushing down the Yen. This most likely means that the Bank of Japan and the government acted alone during this intervention without the blessing and help of other central banks who are dealing with economic issues of their own.
Technically, the USD JPY took out a minor retracement zone at 84.38 to 84.74 before settling slightly below the last main top at 85.90. A breakout over this price will turn the main trend up on the daily chart.
If this occurs, then look for a test of the intermediate retracement area at 86.01 to 86.75. Ultimately, the major long-term chart indicates that 88.93 is the major objective of this developing move. A move to this price will keep the Dollar/Yen under 90.00 so that Japan can avoid the wrath of the major central banks.
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