U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) closed at a new high closing price and remains systematically bullish. The S&P Small-Cap 600, the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and the S&P Large-Cap 100 did not make higher highs confirm the higher high by the S&P 500, however.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 10/31/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to new all-time closing price high to confirm the new all-time closing price high made by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 10/28/14.
The NASDAQ 100 Index and the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) absolute prices rose above their highs of the previous 14 years on 10/31/14 and remain systematically bullish.
The broader, more inclusive NASDAQ Composite index did not close at a new high, however.
The Value Line Arithmetic Index remains well below its July 2014 high.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line remains below its August 2014 high.
NYSE total volume rose 18% to a level 28% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 10/31/14 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to new all-time closing price high to confirm the new all-time closing price high made by the Dow-Jones Transportation Average on 10/28/14.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, the absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 10/31/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/27/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/27/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/29/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell sharply since 10/13/14, and the OEF/SPY trend has turned neutral again. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.78, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23. 52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/31/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.96% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
5.90% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
4.73% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.39% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.39% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
5.57% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
1.90% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
4.92% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
0.54% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
6.61% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
2.64% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.91% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.48% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
3.70% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
3.91% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.85% , BCR , C R BARD
1.50% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.84% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.78% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
0.56% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
4.96% , ITT , ITT INDS
2.92% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
2.64% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.35% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
1.37% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.76% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
2.18% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.98% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
1.79% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.02% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
1.97% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
2.39% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
4.48% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.29% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-4.11% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-4.64% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-4.12% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-7.72% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-2.28% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.16% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-2.20% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.14% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.25% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.94% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-1.29% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.24% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.23% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.52% , AFL , AFLAC
-1.16% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-0.38% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-0.15% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-0.05% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.64% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.26% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.08% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.12% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.68% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.12% , FLR , FLUOR
-0.39% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.31% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.03% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.02% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-4.95% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.56% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.17% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-0.03% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.96% , Japan Index, EWJ
4.73% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.91% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.90% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.71% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.34% , Italy Index, EWI
2.32% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.17% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.03% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.03% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.99% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.92% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.91% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.87% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.85% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.85% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.84% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.83% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.80% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.75% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.72% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.71% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.62% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.62% , India PS, PIN
1.56% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.55% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.52% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.49% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.48% , Energy Global, IXC
1.48% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.47% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.45% , Germany Index, EWG
1.44% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.42% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.42% , Spain Index, EWP
1.42% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.39% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.39% , France Index, EWQ
1.39% , Global 100, IOO
1.38% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.38% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.38% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.38% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.37% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.34% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.33% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.32% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.30% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.30% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.28% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.27% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.26% , Networking, IGN
1.26% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.22% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.22% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.22% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.22% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.22% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.22% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.19% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.19% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.19% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.19% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.17% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.16% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.15% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.15% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.15% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.13% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.12% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.11% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.11% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.11% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.09% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.09% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.09% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.08% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.08% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.08% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.07% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.05% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.99% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.98% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.84% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.84% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.80% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.77% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.76% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.75% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.73% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.73% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.70% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.68% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.65% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.64% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.56% , Austria Index, EWO
0.55% , Dividend International, PID
0.54% , Canada Index, EWC
0.51% , Australia Index, EWA
0.51% , Water Resources, PHO
0.50% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.43% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.40% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.40% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.35% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.31% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.10% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.09% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.08% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.02% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.13% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.21% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.23% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.23% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.26% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.26% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.42% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.78% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.81% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.13% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.14% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.15% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.25% , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.02% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1968.03, 50-day SMA
1912.34, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
