Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/10 and remains neutral.

Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) crossed above its 200-day SMA on 5/17/10 and remains neutral.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains bearish.

Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains bearish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains neutral.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

CRB Index of commodity prices fell below 7-month lows, tangibly demonstrating weakness for the intermediate term.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/17/10 and remains bullish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.65% , PTV , PACTIV
9.82% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
9.61% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
9.77% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
5.58% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.81% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.99% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.31% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.83% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.26% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
2.75% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
3.95% , CBS , CBS CORP.
1.32% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.94% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
0.63% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.22% , BMS , BEMIS
0.67% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.58% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.60% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.09% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.42% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
1.13% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
0.53% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.37% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
2.39% , PPL , PPL
1.93% , DLX , DELUXE
1.98% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
4.03% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
1.35% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.84% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
3.15% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
1.02% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.66% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
1.55% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.27% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
0.78% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
3.08% , HAS , HASBRO
4.26% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
0.25% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.75% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.34% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.59% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-3.11% , LOW , LOWES
-3.23% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.51% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.38% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-1.87% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.81% , AES , AES
-2.57% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-3.33% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-2.83% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.70% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.94% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.48% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-2.75% , TXT , TEXTRON
-0.87% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.38% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.48% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-2.75% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-2.42% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.89% , FLR , FLUOR
-1.25% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.83% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.29% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.51% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-2.64% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.31% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.68% , NBR , NABORS
-1.04% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-1.74% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-1.67% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.01% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.55% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.32% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.80% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.45% , KG , KING PHARM
-1.73% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.03% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.70% , CAT , CATERPILLAR

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 31.03. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 29.60, 28.44, and 28.15. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Support 21.25 and 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) crossed above its 200-day SMA on 5/17/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. Support 26.99, 26.53, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Support 14.87 and 14.56. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 5/7/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLU fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 29.50, 28.68, and 25.76. Resistance 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 30.66 and 29.48. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.34, 28.53, and 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 54.29, 52.29, and 51.34. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is bearishly below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 but has stabilized somewhat since. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of IWF fell below 8-week lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP is trading between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and is neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 5/12/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1184.4, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 5/10/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.8525 and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high on 5/6/10 but appears to have lost upside momentum since. Support 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA and, therefore, is now neutral. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 87.22 and 89.71.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/12/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.91, down from 2.99 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.80 on 5/7/10, a high level that indicates moderately bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1114.96, 1094.15, 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1173.57, 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1114.96, low of 5/17/2010
1094.15, low of 5/7/2010
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.70% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.80% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.35% Sweden Index, EWD
1.32% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.29% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.85% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.76% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.75% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.69% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.67% Networking, IGN
0.63% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.56% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.55% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.53% Germany Index, EWG
0.53% Singapore Index, EWS
0.49% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.48% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.40% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.32% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.32% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.29% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.24% European VIPERs, VGK
0.22% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.22% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.21% South Africa Index, EZA
0.21% Italy Index, EWI
0.20% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.19% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.19% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.17% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.17% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.16% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.15% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.14% EAFE Index, EFA
0.14% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.11% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.10% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.08% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.07% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.05% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.01% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.01% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.00% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.00% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.01% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.02% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.02% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Global 100, IOO
-0.04% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.05% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.06% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.06% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.09% Spain Index, EWP
-0.09% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.09% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.09% France Index, EWQ
-0.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.12% Water Resources, PHO
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.14% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.16% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.18% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.19% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.20% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.21% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.21% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.22% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.26% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.26% Russia MV, RSX
-0.27% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.31% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.33% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.35% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.37% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.37% Dividend International, PID
-0.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.52% Austria Index, EWO
-0.53% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.56% India PS, PIN
-0.61% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.71% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.75% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.75% Energy Global, IXC
-0.80% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.83% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.84% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.92% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.94% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.94% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.99% Australia Index, EWA
-1.03% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.07% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.17% Canada Index, EWC
-1.25% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.26% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.28% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.29% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.31% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.32% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.51% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.11% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.67% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.83% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-3.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME