The September U.S. dollar index is modestly lower in early morning electronic dealings and the currencies are slightly higher. Dollar index bulls still have some near-term technical momentum. The dollar index finds key shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 86.09. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.45. The September Euro today finds sell stop orders are likely located at shorter-term technical support at the overnight low of 1.2657 and then heavier sell stops just below support at the June low of 1.2609. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2719 and then at 1.2751. Buy stops likely reside just above those shorter-term resistance levels.
The metals are trading moderately lower in early morning dealings. While a near-term low may be in place following late last week’s rebound, there is still the potential for a bear flag developing on the daily bar chart for August gold. In August gold, prices would have to push and close back above solid resistance at $589.00 to give the bulls a bit of fresh technical momentum. Key shorter-term technical support for August gold today is Tuesday’s low of $564.30. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then just below support at $560.00. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at this week’s high of $584.00 and then just above shorter-term resistance at $589.00.
Prices are trading near steady in early electronic dealings, as traders await the weekly DOE stocks report this morning. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below shorter-term support at the overnight low of $68.88. I look for more trading within the recent well-defined range–bound by key near-term support at $68.00 in July crude and solid resistance at $75.00. But a drop below the aforementioned trading range–including multiple closes below it–would then likely mean a trading range in crude oil prices between $65.00 and $70.00.
Prices were mostly higher in quiet overnight electronic trading, on a short-covering from recent losses. There is presently beneficial rains forecast for the Corn Belt during the next 48 hours. Now, weather models disagree on the extended weather forecasts for the Corn Belt. One calls for cooler temps and some precip, and the other calls for hotter and drier weather in the extended forecast. Traders will keep a very close eye on the midday weather updates today. Traders will also seek direction from the “outside markets”–gold and crude oil today. It don’t look for much more downside pressure in the grains in the near term. It’s likely that the bearish near-term weather has already been factored into prices.