* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many U.S. markets close early today, in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday that gives the U.S. a three-day weekend. U.S. markets are closed on Friday. But as the trading week draws to a close Thursday is the most important trading day of the week. The key U.S. Labor Department employment situation report for June is out this morning. The important non-farm jobs number is expected to come in at up 215,000. However, Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected reading from the ADP national employment report (up 281,000) makes many suspect the Labor Department’s non-farm jobs number will also come in stronger-than-forecast. Look for active trading in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the jobs data—especially if there is a surprise in the report.

The U.S. jobs report will give the Federal Reserve more information in its quest to determine the best monetary policy. There is presently debate among market watchers on whether the Fed should begin to ratchet up interest rates. However, recent comments from Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday, suggest most still favor keeping U.S. interest rates very low for some time to come.

Also, the European Central Bank holds its monthly monetary policy meeting Thursday. While no monetary policy moves are expected after last month’s fresh easing measures, ECB president Draghi’s remarks at his press conference will be closely scrutinized for clues on future moves from the ECB.

With the long U.S. holiday weekend ahead, during which time unexpected geopolitical developments have extra time to surface, I suspect many traders will take some risk off the table today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, the Challenger job cuts report, and the U.S. trade deficit report. The ISM non-manufacturing report, and the global services PMI.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (It’s a U.S. three-day holiday weekend, so that extra day makes more time for unexpected weekend developments.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below Tuesday’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s record high of 1,971.75 and then at 1,980.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,953.50 and then at this week’s low of 1,948.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and trading near this week’s 14-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 3,896.00 and then at 3,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,875.00 and then at 3,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the record high of 16,960 and then at 17,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 16,875 and then at 16,850. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today on a corrective bounce from Wednesday’s solid losses. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 16/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 6/32 and then at 135 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.16.0 and then at 124.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.10.5 and then at 124.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on a tepid short-covering bounce after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.125 and then at 80.200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.975 and then at this week’s low of 79.770. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week low. Bulls are fading. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $104.29 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $103.50 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were slightly higher in overnight trading, on some short covering after recent selling pressure and ahead of a long holiday weekend. This week’s strong downside price action has the bears in firm technical command. Trading Thursday will be critical. If grain futures prices can rebound well off their weekly lows by the close of trade today, it would be a clue that the markets have put in their lows. If grain futures prices close near their weekly lows on Thursday, it would suggest still more price pressure during the month of July. July is the time period when dry and hot weather can start to enter the Corn Belt. But extended weather forecasts presently still see no excessively dry or hot weather on the horizon.